Positive Trend in Retail Confidence Continues Along with a Seasonal Drop TEPE, which dropped to the negative zone in October for the first time since August 2010, continued to decrease but rose year-on-year by 10.3 points.

ANKARA- TEPE, which dropped to the negative zone in October for the first time since August 2010, continued to decrease. TEPE stood at -8.9 in December 2010. TEPE showed 6.2 points of month-on-month decrease and 10.3 points of year-on-year increase.

In December 2010 expectations for the next three months decreased by 1 point. 28.4 percent of TEPE participants expect improvement in business activities whereas 35.1 percent expect deterioration in business activities. This implies an improvement by 24.6 points compared to December 2009.

The difference between the participants who declared an improvement in business activities and who declared a deterioration in business activities increased by 34.3 points year-on-year and by 2.9 points compared to November 2010.

In December 2010 the gap between TEPE and EU-27 average widened further. EU-27 Retail Index stood at 2.3 in December 2010 indicating year-on-year increase by 13.2 points.

Analysis of the performance of sub-sectors indicate that in December 2010 furniture and lighting equipments n.e.c., electrical household articles, radio and televisions, non-specialized stores and food, beverages and tobacco products sectors demonstrated a strong performance. On the other hand, textile and ready made clothing, and others sectors performed relatively poorly. Motor vehicles sector accomplished and average performance.

Detailed results of TEPE survey questions reveal a severe drop in business activities compared to the month before. Orders placed with suppliers, expectation for sales and prices over the next three months, and recovery of business activities compared to previous period demonstrate a downwards trend. On the other hand, employment expectations and expectations for number of stores in the next year move upwards; and current level of inventory stands below normal.