Negative Trend in TEPE Continues TEPE which stood in the negatives in July, for the first time in the last ten months preserved the downwards trend in August. The chief reasons for TEPE decline was the deterioration of expectations for business activities in the next three months.

ANKARA-TEPE which had been in the positives since September 2010 stood at -0.6 in July 2011. The fall in the index furthered and the index decreased to -4 in August 2011. This implies a month-on-month decline by 3.4 points and a year-on-year decline at 1.7 points.

The balance value of the expectations for the next three months stood at 4.5 in August 2011. 42.5 percent of TEPE survey participants expect an improvement in their business activities in the next three months while 22.9 percent expect a deterioration. This implies a 3.8-point increase compared to August 2010 and a 5.7 point decrease compared to July 2011.

The difference between the participants who declared a year-on-year improvement in business activities and who declared a year-on-year deterioration in business activities increased by 1.1 points compared to August 2010 and decreased by 9.5 points compared to July 2011.

EU-27 Retail Confidence Index stood at -10.9 in August 2011 implying a 5.8-point month-on-month drop and a 11.7-point year-on-year drop. Standing below the TEPE since the beginning of 2011, EU-27 Retail Confidence Index had a negative value in August 2011, the fifth consecutive month in the negatives.

Concerning sub-sectors, furniture and lighting equipment sectors demonstrated the best performance in August 2011 compared to the same period a year ago. This sector was followed by the food, beverages and tobacco products, and non-specialized stores sectors. Textiles, ready-made clothing and footwear sector, motor vehicles sector, electrical appliances, radio and television sector, and the "others" sector performed worse than the average, lagging behind the previous year. The weakest performer of August was the electrical appliances, radio and television sector.

Question-based examination of TEPE survey reveals that compared to July 2011, expectations deteriorated for all factors except the expectations for the sales prices in the next three months as well as the number of stores in the next year. Level of inventory increased both month-on-month and year-on-year. Expectations for the sales prices in the next three months improved by 6.7 points compared to July 2011 and by 18.1 points compared to August 2010. Year-on-year recovery in business activities increased by 1.1 points.