Evaluation Note/Hüseyin Raşit Yılmaz Will a “Turkic Spring” Follow the “Arab Spring?”

"The transformation process that started with the rebellion of people throughout the Middle East is expanding. The failure of dictators to provide sufficient natural resources for the people and the conflict between the popular will and the will of the authoritarian regimes has given way to the recent developments. It is now inevitable that in the medium term, the process will expand to engulf the entire Arab world. Even in Saudi Arabia, which appears to be the most stable Arab country, the footsteps of a parliamentary system accompanied by a symbolic monarchy can be heard in the decades ahead. These footsteps must have been heard by all of the governments of the Gulf countries, and the Saudi Royal House, as they have been announcing huge social support packages consecutively for the last twelve months.

A few months ago, Yemeni president Saleh handed over his   power in exchange for immunity for himself and his family, marking the second victory of the spring after Libya. Should the natural process have progressed, the spring could have then blossomed in Bahrain. However, as the majority of the opponents as well as the general public were Shiites and were under the influence of the Iranians, this automatically brought about an intervention by the US. The US, unwilling to lose its military base in Bahrain and worried about the risk that Iran’s power might penetrate into the region, will prevent the spring coming to the region with unnatural methods."