Retail Confidence not yet in the Positive Zone Despite the uptrend, TEPE remained in the negatives in February 2012.

ANKARA - TEPE remained in the negatives in February 2012 despite the uptrend it achieved. The main driver of the uptrend was the positive expectations for the next three months. Non-adjusted series hit the lowest of the last twenty two months concerning the level of business activities. The gap between TEPE and EU confidence index was preserved.

Having welcomed 2012 with the sharp fall, TEPE could not make it to the positives in February albeit an uptrend. TEPE had a value of -0.9 in February 2012. This implies a month-on-month increase by 0.9 points and a year-on-year decrease by 6.5 points.

The balance value of the expectations for the next three months stood at 18.9 in February. 43.3 percent of TEPE survey participants expect an improvement in their business activities in the next three months while 20.6 percent expect a deterioration. This implies a 7.7 point decrease compared to February 2011 and a 5.2 point increase compared to January 2012.

In February 2012, the level of business activities compared to the previous year stood at the lowest of the last twenty two months. 17.2 percent of the participants declared a year-on-year improvement in business activities whereas 53.8 percent declared deterioration. Volume of business activities, therefore decreased by 15.3 points compared to February 2011 and increased by 0.7 points compared to January 2012.

EU-27 Retail Confidence Index stood at -12 in February 2012, demonstrating a month-on-month increase by 2 points and a year-on-year drop by 12.6 points. Turkey which has been outperforming the EU since the beginning of 2011 preserved the gap in February 2012.

Comparing the EU-27 Index and TEPE for February 2011 and January 2012, European countries suffered year-on-year drops in the Index except Slovakia, Latvia and Romania. Steepest drops were observed in Sweden and Hungary and Eurozone performed worse than the EU average.

Electrical appliances, radio, and televisions sector was the leader sector of February compared to February 2011. Food, beverages and tobacco products sector and non-specialized stores sectors also demonstrated an improvement in performance. Furniture and lighting equipment sectors performed better than the average despite a year-on-year drop. Textiles, ready-made clothing and footwear sector and “others” sector (gas station, pharmacy, perfumery, hardware, glassware, stationery etc.) experienced severe drops in performance compared to the previous year while the motor vehicles sector demonstrated the sharpest fall in performance.

Question-based assessment of TEPE survey results reveals that all figures and expectations worsened compared to February 2011. The larges deterioration was in the level of business activities compared to the last three months and last year. On the other hand, expectations for sales prices increased slightly. TEPE results showed an improvement in terms of all figures and expectations, compared to January 2012, where the biggest surge was in the expectations for sales prices, sales volume and orders placed with suppliers.