Retail Confidence Still Inert around the Horizontal Axis TEPE stood in the negatives with a value of -0.4 in March 2012.

Albeit the uptrend, TEPE stood in the negatives with a value of -0.4 in March 2012 as it was in January and February. This implies a month-on-month increase by 0.4 points and a year-on-year decreased by 3 points.

The balance value of the expectations for the next three months stood at 20.5 in March. 50 percent of TEPE survey participants expect an improvement in their business activities in the next three months while 20.1 percent expect a deterioration. This implies a 0.8 point decrease compared to March 2011 and a 1.1 point increase compared to February 2012.

In March 2012, 18.3 percent of the participants declared a year-on-year improvement in business activities whereas 51 percent declared deterioration. Volume of business activities, therefore decreased by 12.1 points compared to March 2011 and by 0.6 points compared to February 2012.

EU-27 Retail Confidence Index stood at -11.4 in March 2012, demonstrating a month-on-month increase by 0.5 points and a year-on-year drop by 11.7 points. Turkey which has been outperforming the EU since the beginning of 2011 preserved the gap also in March 2012.

Comparing the EU-27 Index and TEPE for March 2011 and February 2012, European countries suffered year-on-year drops in the Index except Slovenia, Finland, Romania, Spain and Latvia. Steepest drops were observed in Sweden and Belgium. Eurozone countries performed better than the EU average.

Food, beverages and tobacco products sector and non-specialized stores sectors were the leader sectors of March 2012, compared to March 2011. All sectors but these faced year-on-year declines in March. Textiles, ready-made clothing and footwear sector and furniture and lighting equipment sectors declined at the average whereas the “others” sector (gas station, pharmacy, perfumery, hardware, glassware, stationery etc.) faced a larger year-on-year drop than the average. The sharpest year-on-year decline was in the motor vehicles sector.

Question-based assessment of TEPE survey results reveal that expectations for the level of business activities compared to the last three months and last year and for the number of stores next year declined severely compared to March 2011. On the other hand, expectations for the level of employment and the sales prices for the next three months improved year-on-year. Compared to February 2012, only expectations for the level of business activities compared to the last three months and for the level of employment and the sales prices for the next three months showed an advance.