Do not stand up or unfasten your seatbelts.
Güven Sak, PhD
04 November 2011
Turkey will be affected by the crisis as much as Europe, regardless of the future direction of the crisis in the latter. This is what the cabin crew says when there is turbulence during your flight: “Please do not stand up or unfasten your seatbelts.” For your safety, of course. We are going through a period in which everyone must be more cautious. The decision of Greek President Papandreu to hold a referendum on the economic measures to be applied to Greece has shaken Europe. They are treating Greece like an “ungrateful cat.” You’ve probably been watching the developments, too. Europe expects that if the Greek people say “no” in the referendum, the economy will be affected negatively. The consequence of this for Europe will be even stronger turbulence. This is the first point to state. Tu
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Crocodiles swim in the streets of Bangkok
Güven Sak, PhD
01 November 2011
We are not alone. There is another country that can compete with Turkey in incompetence: Thailand. It seems that “it was the best of times, it was the worst of times” in 2011 for Thailand. Just like for Turkey. In July 2011, the World Bank announced that Thailand, with its US $4200 per capita income, had been upgraded from a lower-middle income country to an upper-middle income country. Again, just like Turkey. In August 2011, elections in Thailand overthrew the military rule. Yingluck Shinawatra, born in 1967, became the first female leader of the country and the youngest political leader in the previous 60 years. However, the monsoon rains have been heavier than expected. Crocodiles have been seen swimming in the streets of Bangkok, just as they had in the nineteenth century. Harry Park
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The mother of all problems
Güven Sak, PhD
29 October 2011
Are you following the organizational mess surrounding the earthquake in Van? Those coordination failures highlight Turkey’s underlying problems. What, really, is the mother of all problems in Turkey? The Kurdish issue comes to mind, doesn’t it? Or the Armenian question, perhaps? I don’t think that these 19th century leftovers will challenge Turkey in the first half of the 21st century. The challenge is the economy. Let me explain: The challenge lies in the country’s institutional capacity in preparing the grounds for a new beginning. Turkey will either rise to be a high-income country or get trapped in its current middle-income state. But all reforms that can contribute to the former outcome have been postponed these past 10 years. Not ideal for a new beginning.
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Turkey has made no progress since 1999
Güven Sak, PhD
28 October 2011
The Van earthquake has revealed that Turkey is still a developing country. There are two types of countries in the world: those with developed organization capacities and those with none. The ones in the first group are called developed countries; those in the second group are called developing countries. The Van earthquake has revealed that Turkey is still in the second group. There was no considerable improvement in the organization capacity of Turkey from the Marmara earthquake of 1999 to the Van earthquake of 2011. At least this is the conclusion I have drawn from what the Van earthquake suggests. The earthquake has upset all of us, but this sorrow should not overshadow our ability to make a rational assessment. Let me state three points first and then explain how I reached the above
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Which language will the Central Bank speak?
Güven Sak, PhD
25 October 2011
I hope that the CBT stops playing in the sand and eliminates the second source of uncertainty today. Our opinion about the situation in Turkey has been changing. Lately I have been hearing the same question everywhere. People approach to me shyly and ask, “Excuse me. Are things as well as we are being told they are?” It is like they want to believe that things are all right. It seems like they will be very upset if they hear that things might go badly. But one way or another, they want to hear the truth only halfheartedly. I am sensing a growing trend of pessimism. Such are transition periods. The shift from optimism to pessimism, or vice versa, is not an overnight process. I believe that the rising pessimism is related closely to the exchange rate movements. Today I want to put in a frame
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The young people are here; where are the workers?
Güven Sak, PhD
21 October 2011
Polls reveal that 86% of American workers agree with the protestors. “And, my friends, in this story you have a history of this entire movement. First, they ignore you. Then they ridicule you. And then they attack you and want to burn you. And then they build monuments to you. And that is what is going to happen to the Amalgamated Clothing Workers of America.” This controversial quotation is from 1918, and belonged to Mahatma Gandi, according to claims. Now forget about who said it. Let me assess this statement with respect to the residents of Zuccotti Park. First, everyone ignored them. Then they ridiculed them. We are rapidly approaching the “burning” phase now. However, they have not been able to kick the “Occupy Wall Street” protestors out of Zuccotti Park in New York.
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We cannot manufacture domestic automobiles with this judicial system.
Güven Sak, PhD
18 October 2011
A country cannot make high value-added production if conflicts about intellectual property rights cannot be solved easily in the judicial system. Lately, the world has become engulfed in the fire of upheaval. During the weekend demonstrations were held all around the world. This fire of upheaval is the clearest evidence that the new normal will not be at all similar to the old one. Today, however, I am not interested in the upheaval per se. I want to state from the very beginning with three observations about the demonstrations I have been following since the beginning of the year. First is that there are two types of countries in the world: those in which the police are harmed more than demonstrators during the demonstrations, and those in which the demonstrators are harmed more than the
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Egypt needs its Özal
Güven Sak, PhD
15 October 2011
There is disillusionment with the pace of change in Egypt. Take the 1958 emergency law, which former president Hosni Mubarak limited to the regulation of narcotics and terrorism at the demand of Tahrir Square protesters. The military, in turn, recently expanded the reach of the emergency law to the suppression of strikes, rumors, traffic disruptions, etc. The reversal came after the Israeli Embassy attack, followed by the deaths of last Sunday, giving us a glimpse of the police state to come. “That’s the way it is in Egypt,” someone would say in the end, “there is a need for more restraint.” That mantra is all too familiar to anyone acquainted with recent Turkish history.
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I missed the red signal of my BB
Güven Sak, PhD
14 October 2011
My BlackBerry (BB) has not been working for the last couple of days. There has been a service failure for BBs throughout the world. I cannot read my e-mails and messages on time. I miss the red signal of the BB and its buzzing when a message comes. I am upset. I feel that something is missing. In the early 1960s, when I was a child, you could not make a long-distance phone call but had to be “connected” to the line. You first had to call the telephone exchange and ask the operator to “write down” the phone number you wanted to call. Then, the operator had to “connect” the number to your telephone line. I am telling this so that you can understand from which point I started. Back then I could not have imagined that one day I would miss the red signal of my BB.
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A country which cannot go beyond producing iPad cases cannot manufacture automobiles.
Güven Sak, PhD
11 October 2011
A country that has not decided what to do in the field of intellectual property rights cannot improve its domestic value added.
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