Tahrir as a thermostat
Güven Sak, PhD
26 November 2011
Tahrir 2.0 has shown the control system is effective. Now Egyptians have to devise a way to transfer this function to the ballot box. You probably remember the beginnings of the Egyptian Awakening. It was Dickensian: the best of times, the worst of times. Happiness and anxiety were in the air, fearful talk was spreading of Islamists taking power in Cairo.
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One trouble at a time, please
Güven Sak, PhD
25 November 2011
Fitch Ratings cut Turkey’s outlook from positive to stable which means that Turkey no longer as attractive for investment in the short term despite its successful record and bright future. Don’t you feel that the world is like a watch with a broken driving spring lately? I think so. When the spring of my grandfather’s old mechanical watch broke, the hour and minute hands would start to spin like crazy. I felt like time rushed and that I was being left behind. In fact, the time is not rushing. Then, where does this “one trouble at a time, please” feeling stem from? I call this “the syndrome of a student who has not done his homework.” The world has been changing and we are postponing our responsibilities to catch up with it. Then comes the syndrome. It is like the exam questions have been s
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The Turkish Diaspora in the top ten
Güven Sak, PhD
22 November 2011
The Turkish diaspora is of great importance for lobbying activities in support of Turkey. The Foreign Economic Relations Board (DEİK) has been trying to organize the Turkish diaspora for some time. To this end, they have established the World Turkish Business Council (DTİK). This year, DTİK convened the seventh World Turkish Entrepreneurs Congress, which brought together entrepreneurs of Turkish nationality from all over the world. Turkish entrepreneurs resident abroad constitute the Turkish diaspora. Participants do business in a wide viriety of fields in many different countries. This is what TOBB President Rifat Hisarcıklıoğlu implied when he said, “We are no longer a group of migrant workers; we are the Turkish diaspora.” I believe that having a strong and far-flung diaspora is import
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The tipping point in Syria’s awakening?
Güven Sak, PhD
19 November 2011
Someone wants Syrians to see that we are at the tipping point of the Awakening. We might be at the beginning of a long and tiresome transformation process. The Arab Awakening is the event of 2011. It is obvious that there is not only one form of Arab Awakening, but many, and with events still unfolding, a pattern is emerging. Awakenings have split into two groups: Tunisia and Egypt are on one side, Yemen and Libya on the other. In the first group, political change requires Internet access, social media and mass demonstrations. In the second group, it takes a group of army defectors, a safe haven for their operation and some form of insurgency. Syria looked like it was in group one. Judging from the news of the past week, the Syrian Awakening looks like it has reached a tipping
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The interest rate has increased by 50% since February
Güven Sak, PhD
18 November 2011
The Central Bank has achieved an outcome that could have been ensured simply by saying “I am increasing the policy interest rate,” and has confused everyone. Recently a friend of mine said, “See the outcomes, now. The interest on loans from my own bank has increased by 50%, from 9.5% to 14% since February. This is the case with Turkish Lira loans, whereas the rate of increase for foreign exchange loans has reached as high as 100%. Both the input cost and opportunity cost have increased, no matter what the reason. Thing have not worked out as we calculated.”
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Dubai can beat Istanbul
Güven Sak, PhD
15 November 2011
Turkey has been postponing the structural policy package since 2007. If they push harder, Turkey will become like Italy. I am discontented with the short-termism that lately has been ruling in Turkey in all realms, including the economic policy design. A recently announced index was thought-provoking regarding how Turkey should address issues. Today, I will talk about it and at the end you will agree.
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The end of Turkey’s Indian Summer
Güven Sak, PhD
12 November 2011
The decline of Europe’s Rosy days also marks the end of the Indian summer for Turkey. That, at least, is what I see in the deepening European crisis. Europe is neatly divided into two parts: creditors and debtors. Debtor governments, like Greece and Italy, are going to have technocratic caretaker governments. Germany, among the largest creditors, is dictating the rule of these caretaker governments by limiting the influence of popular will through elections and referendums on important decisions. Europe is now more of a project of the elites than ever. Under Angela Merkel, Germany’s decision is to first focus on a way out of the euro crisis and only then to serve justice through the ballot box. There is more trouble ahead for the European Project.
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Those who build bad buildings must know that they will pay the price
Güven Sak, PhD
11 November 2011
If there is no building inspection, there is no rule. If the building inspections are not made property, sanctions cannot be imposed. Recently the New York Times published a commentary by Nassim Taleb on risk management. The subject of the commentary was the management of risks accumulated in the financial system because of banks. It was a current issue. The commentary was published on the first day of Bayram. The second Van earthquake had not taken place yet. After the second earthquake, which had taken place the day before, I had wanted to write my views on how to manage the earthquake risk in a country located on seismic belts. And here I go. This commentary was inspired by risk management techniques. If you are curious, please read on.
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No peace, no innovation
Güven Sak, PhD
08 November 2011
Systems in which all parties can remain in their own space are suitable for innovation. There are many signs. If you focus on the signs instead of empty talk, you will see that Turkey has been stealthily returning to the statism of the 1930s. We argue that we are supporting the rule of the private sector, but the practices do not say so. The statism of the 1930s had a meaning in the 1930s. Then, there was no private space. This new form of statism pioneered by the current government, on the other hand, aims directly at liquidating the private space that is beyond of the radius of the state. This is what the signs imply. Today let me tell you what these signs are and assess one among these, the role of the state in the innovation process. I will let you decide.
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The 'R-Word' between Greece and Germany
Güven Sak, PhD
05 November 2011
Europe’s leaders were shocked when Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou announced his intention of holding a referendum on a debt deal reached with the European Union. Financial markets cried out in indignation. Papandreou thankfully backed out yesterday, making do with a vote of confidence in his Parliament. The announcement of a referendum was worrying nonetheless, because it could pave the way for a German referendum which could permanently halt the EU’s financial rescue operations. Now that referendum would count. And it was Papandreou who opened Pandora’s Box by saying you-know-what out loud.
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