Fatih Özatay, PhD
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Why is medium term inflation target high?
On December 10, Central Bank announced the monetary and exchange rate policy for 2010. Along with this, we also learned the inflation target for the following three…
Net errors and omissions and 2010 growth
A number of people argue that Turkey will grow by 3.5 to 5 percent in 2010. The lower threshold of this interval was defined by the Medium Term Program declared in…
Capacity utilization rate can be calculated more precisely
Data on capacity utilization ratio (CUR) announced for the last couple of months are quite surprising. It goes like this: CUR for a certain month is announced a month…
Why did the level of capacity utilization ratio surprise?
This week important indicators were announced. The most surprising one was October industrial production ratio. Rise in industrial production was inconsistent with the…
How does fiscal policy raise interest rates?
I would like to apologize from all Greek people. By the way, I would like to convey the sorrow I feel to credit rating agencies. I have not been disclaimed this fast…
Single currency, multiple fiscal policies
Do you pay attention to the recent developments in Greece? After taking over the office, the new government understood that the 2009 budget deficit estimations announced…
What does credit rating serve for?
We are hungry for good news for a long time now. So it was pleasing that Fitch increased Turkey's note by two levels to BB+ this week. If nothing goes wrong, we can…
Did the contraction period end? How will we measure?
In the coming days critical data will be announced: first October industrial production index, than third national income for the third quarter and November capacity…
Another slap in the face of the global credit market?
For a while we are mainly hearing bad news. This implies that the growth estimations for 2010 involve downward error risk as the main scenario on which estimates that…
Protecting the poor: How?
Global financial crisis has underlined once more an important fact: Credit flows from financial to real sector moves to a large extent along with the volume of economic…
Need for automatic stabilizers
On 29 September, TEPAV, the World Bank and UNICEF held a press meeting to introduce the report based on a survey carried out jointly. The findings of the Turkey Welfare…
What will happen in 2010? (2)
Yesterday I presented the basis scenario that I think will apply in 2010. In brief the scenario said: Over the last quarter of 2009 and the first half of 2010, the…