Just before growth rates are announced
Fatih Özatay, PhD
28 June 2010
On Wednesday growth rates for the first quarter of 2010 will be announced. The figures will suggest that Turkey's economy grew quite rapidly compared to the same period in 2009. Commentators have a consensus on this. On the other hand, we will also realize that compared to the peak level before the global crisis gross domestic product (GDP) and thus GDP per capita are still quite low.
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Does the digestion capacity of the EU decrease day by day?
Fatih Özatay, PhD
27 June 2010
Recently it was announced that the European Union's (EU) statistics agency Eurostat will be furnished with a broader set of authorities to be able to audit the budget accounts of the member states more cautiously. The decision was made at the EU finance ministers' meeting held in the second week of June. Olli Rehn, EU Commissioner Responsible for Economic and Monetary Affairs, stated that in the context of the new auditing authorities of the Union, the national statistics of Bulgaria might be examined.
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The illicit has become legitimate, the legitimate is illicit
Güven Sak, PhD
26 June 2010
Do you remember the suras of apocalypse that Nazım Hikmet wrote? The beautiful poem that goes, 'There have been many presages, the time has come/The illicit has become legitimate, the legitimate is illicit/.../There have been many presages, the presages of apocalypse'. Nowadays, our economic system is going through a similar period. I believe it is a big loss, not being able to notice that. We were too late to understand the changes in the beginning of the crisis, and it cost us dear. Now if we fail to keep up with the changes, it seems to me that the consequences will once more be burdensome. That's the reason why I'm writing this article.
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Turkey’s exports in Euro and Dollar terms
Fatih Özatay, PhD
24 June 2010
We must admit that the current problems of the European Union (EU) furnished us with a lot of material to write on. One among these was that Turkey's exports will be affected negatively both as the domestic demand across EU would drop due to the tightening measures planned to be implemented and as Euro would depreciate.
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Greece is the symbol of the indigestion problem of the European Union
Güven Sak, PhD
24 June 2010
Europe's problem continues. And its nature changes as it continues. The other day the issue was about BNP Paribas. Everyone's heart almost stopped when the credit rating dropped. It seems now we have come to see what the fundamentals of this issue is: the Committee of European Banking Supervisors (CEBS) is going to measure and publish the stress of twenty-five banks. It did this in October, 2009, most recently, and now it's going to do it again. Spain has already announced that it was going to publish a similar test for its banks. Now wait for this 'How much pressure is on the banking balance sheets of Europe?' test of CEBS to cover all banks, instead of only those twenty-five. Wolfgang Münchau was talking exactly about this, this week, in Financial Times. Why is it so? For a very simple r
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How will this accident affect oil prices?
Güven Sak, PhD
22 June 2010
While we suffer from our problems over here, we might be thinking our problem is the primary concern of the US, as well. Let's be realistic. The primary concern of the US nowadays, is the oil leaking from the deepwater well in Gulf of Mexico. The matter has been on the agenda for almost two months, now. It is the only concern of the White House, nowadays. At this point you might say: 'What do we care? Environmental disasters are terrible but this matter doesn't concern us.' Well, you are wrong. At first I thought, 'This is the difference between the earthquakes in İstanbul and in Erzincan, the media only takes interest in things when it comes to affect them.' But apparently this is not what it's all about. The matter actually concerns all of us a great deal, due to the fact that the White
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Keynes: Dead and alive
Fatih Özatay, PhD
21 June 2010
Recently a significant discussion has emerged among members of governments in developed countries and famous academics. Shall countries initiate fiscal policy tightening or is it too soon for such policies?
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A six-item export policy proposal
Fatih Özatay, PhD
20 June 2010
My last two commentaries started with the risk that the recent developments in the European Union affect Turkey's exports adversely. In particular I was interested in the steps that could be taken to tackle similar problems Turkey's exports can encounter in the future. So I will continue with this today.
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Exports, exchange rate and the Central Bank
Fatih Özatay, PhD
17 June 2010
I was concerned about what Turkey can do to improve its export performance taking departure from the risk that the developments in the European Union affects Turkey's exports negatively. It will be wise to examine the monetary policy and exchange rate policy first being the tools that comes to mind first. As a result, I would like to address the steps that can be taken in the short term to begin with.
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Is belt-tightening in one country the same as doing so in all countries?
Güven Sak, PhD
15 June 2010
There is a serious discussion in the international world of economics, nowadays. Are you following it? There are the ones that support the Chicago school, like Raghuram Rajan, on one side, and the ones who think like Paul Krugman, on the other. Looking at what's happening in Europe, there are the ones saying 'Let's tighten the belts' on one side, and the ones who worry 'If everyone tightens their belts, what will happen to growth, how will these debt stocks look like?' on the other. The governments of Germany, Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland and Italy on one side, the ones of United States, and assumingly, France, on the other. The question on everyone's minds is, I guess, the exact one on the heading of this article: Is belt-tightening in one country the same as doing so in the world's g
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