"Turkish-American Relations in Line with the Recent Developments in Iran"

TEPAV | EPRI organized a meeting entitled "Turkish-American Relations in line with the recent developments in Iran", hosting Bulent Aliriza, the Director of the Turkey Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). The first meeting elaborating on the same subject was held on February 14, 2006 at TEPAV with the participation of Mr. Aliriza as well as other prominent academics, bureaucrats and policy-makers.

During his speech, Mr. Aliriza referred to the report titled "The U.S.-Turkish Alliance at the Iranian Junction?" that was published by CSIS Turkey program in April 2006. Aliriza said that the strategic partnership between the two countries has entered into an indefinite stage with the end of the Cold War and that the bilateral relations were damaged very badly with the outbreak of the Iraq crisis. He stressed that the current government in Turkey is trying to have good relations with the U.S. and that it is important for them to convince the public that the relations are going well with this country. He said it is also very important for the American diplomatic system to have good relations with Turkey.

He explained that an indication for the worsening bilateral relations is evident with the lack of direct dialogue between the high-ranking officials of the two countries. He added this dialogue was present before the outbreak of the diplomatic problems between the two countries due to the situation in Iraq.

As he had explained during his speech in February, Aliriza mentioned that the current bureaucrats and staff at various American institutions such as the Congress, CIA, the State Department as well as various think-tanks are more in favor of tough actions against Iran. There is now not that strong of an anti-intervention mood in the U.S. as was the case before the Iraqi intervention. Furthermore, especially Western European countries now seem to be a part of the U.S.'s "coalition of the willing" against Iran. Aliriza pointed out that the U.S. is softening its democracy rhetoric against the countries that might play an important role in case of an intervention against Iran such as Russia, China and Azerbaijan. Aliriza mentioned that a possible intervention by the U.S. might happen before the Congress elections in November 2006.

In the second part of the meeting, possible effects of such kind of an intervention on Turkey were discussed and it was concluded that Turkey would inevitably be adversely affected by the changes around it. Answering a question on what the U.S. would do in case that Russia and China are convinced and that the U.N. Security Council decides to impose sanctions on Iran, Aliriza said that even in this case, the U.S. would think of a military intervention with the support of the coalition of the willing.

It was discussed that the U.S. would probably not ask Turkey for the use of its military bases or territory since this would be too much of a risk for the U.S. after the bilateral crisis between the two countries due to the same issues during the Iraq war. However, in case of economic embargo or sanction being imposed on Iran, Turkey would be faced with the difficult choice of closing off its border with Iran. All the participants concluded that it was therefore necessary for Turkey to be ready for the political and economic consequences of such kind of a situation.