COP28 Observations Evaluation Note / Arda Yakıcı

The End of the Beginning - At COP28, a call was made to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a fair, orderly, and equitable manner.

In 1942, during the challenging days of World War II, the Allies' repulsion of Germany from Egypt was a promising turning point that could change the course of the war for the Allies. This historic moment was interpreted by British Prime Minister Winston Churchill as 'This is not the end, nor is it the beginning of the end; but it may be the end of the beginning.' Churchill's words emphasize the hope for an uncertain future and the significance of being on the verge of change.

In my view, this historical perspective echoed at the COP 28 Climate Conference held in Dubai from November 30 to December 12, 2023, which I had the opportunity to attend through TEPAV. For the first time in nearly 30 years of environmental negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, a call was made to mark the end of the rise of fossil fuels, for the achievement of the 2050 net zero target, “a transition away from fossil fuels within energy systems in a fair, orderly, and equitable manner.' Such a call at the UN is an encouragement to the countries to take action on a matter, though it is not actually binding for the countries. This can be described as a very important sign that we are coming to an end in the long-standing rise of fossil fuel dependency, as Churchill said, neither an end nor the beginning of the end; but the reversal of this rise, the beginning of the end for fossil fuels, will only happen with concrete steps taken globally by governments and the private sector in line with the call made at COP28. For instance, a complete exit from unabated coal and a significant reduction in oil and natural gas investments, a substantial increase in renewable energy investments, and advancements in energy efficiency. Nevertheless, at COP28, we can say that we witnessed a historic joint declaration of intent regarding the future of fossil fuels and the establishment of the dominance of clean energy sources.

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