Iraq Faces Uncertainties While Paying Effort to Form a Government The latest developments about Iraq have been evaluated at TEPAV with the participation of Dr. Joost Hiltermann, the International Crisis Group Deputy Program Director for the Middle East and North Africa.
ANKARA - TEPAV organised a round table meeting with the theme "Iraq's Uncertain Future, The Baghdad-Erbil Conflict and Relations with Turkey" on September 27, 2010. Deputy Program Director for the Middle East and North Africa at the International Crisis Group, Dr. Joost Hiltermann evaluated the latest developments in Iraq in his the opening speech of the meeting. Hiltermann talked about his recent trip to Iraq, efforts to form a government, the enduring conflict between Baghdad and Erbil and Turkey's policy towards Iraq.
Addressing the last 5 years of Iraq, Hiltermann stated that the security situation in Iraq has improved significantly whereas the political situation remains fragile and uncertain. Hiltermann maintained survival strategies of political actors are a major source of tensions, increasing the risk of the resumption of violence. Hiltermann said there is a regional consensus that Iraq should have a government soon and that the Iraqis also see the impact of the lack of government on their daily lives. Adding that the bargains between the political actors haven't ended yet, Hiltermann stressed he doesn't expect the government to be formed for months. Talking about the several scenarios as to how the government could be form, Hiltermann evaluated in a coalition scenario which contains the majority of the Iraqi there could be a dilemma and the government won't function completely.
The census can be a problem
Hiltermann stated that the enduring conflict over Kirkuk between Baghdad and Erbil is another source of tension and is to have an influence on the census which has been postponed in 2007 and has to be conducted nation wide soon. The issue of the ethnicity which has made given the census a kind of proto-referendum character for the Kurdish leaders, has to be taken out and the negotiations on Kirkuk has to be launched.
Turkey and Iran are competing over Iraq
Touching upon the relations between Turkey and Iraq, Hiltermann said that Turkey and Iran are diplomatically very active and competing for influence in Iraq.
In the discussion part of the meeting participants stressed that Turkey sees oil as the Iraqi national asset and the basis for unity. On the other hand, the high concerns on what could happen after the US's withdrawal was discussed and it was stressed that the risk that US troops would have to come back in case they leave behind an unstable country is real.
