Positive Expectations for the Period Ahead Revive TEPE Led by positive expectations, TEPE increased in May after the downwards movement for three months.

ANKARA - TEPE that had been decreasing since February 2011 moved upwards and reached 3.2 in May 2011. The index therefore showed an 1.1 points of month-on-month and 10.9 points of year-on-year increase.

In May 2011, the equilibrium value of the expectations for the next three years stood at 16.9. 45.7 percent of the TEPE survey participants expected an increase in business activities in the next three month while 29.3 percent expected a deterioration in business activities in May 2011. This implies a 19.6 percent improvement compared to May 2010 and a 3.3 percent improvement compared to April 2011.

The difference between the participants who declared a year-on-year improvement in business activities and who declared a year-on-year deterioration in business activities increased by 7.8 points compared to May 2010 and decreased by 8.4 points compared to April 2011, respectively.

In May 2011, EU-27 Retail Index stood at -2.7 percent indicating a month-on-month increase of 0.8 points and a year-on-year increase at 1.4 points. EU-27 Retail Index, which remained below the TEPE in the first four months of 2011, maintained this trend with a negative value in May 2011.

Analysis of the performance of sub-sectors reveals that compared to May 2010, non-specialized stores sector and the others sector performed most successfully. Electrical appliances, radio and television sector and the motor vehicles sector performed below the average while furniture and lighting equipment n.e.c. and textiles, readymade clothing and footwear sectors demonstrated a highly weak performance compared to the average, standing at values close to the next year. On the other hand, food, beverages and tobacco products sector had a performance weaker than that in May 2010.

Detailed results of the TEPE survey questions reveal a strong year-on-year improvement in the business activities compared to the last three months, sales and orders placed with suppliers over the next three months and expectations for employment. On the other hand, expectations for the sales, sales prices, number of stores and orders placed with the suppliers over the next three months and the business activities compared to the same period in the last year deteriorated compared to April 2011.