TEPE Remains Active But Expectations are Stable TEPE has continued to increase in June of 2011 and reached a value of 3.6, but is expected to remain stable in the third quarter.

ANKARA - Although a vigorous second quarter has kept TEPE at a positive, it is expected to remain stable in the third quarter. TEPE had been in decline since February of 2011 but increased in May and June, reaching a value of 3.6. It has increased by 0.8 points in comparison to the previous month, and 11 points compared to a year ago.

The June 2011 TEPE balance value for the next three months is 17.1. A total of 40.3 percent of TEPE survey participants expect their businesses to do better in the next three months, while 31.7 percent expect to do worse. This indicates a rise of 23.8 points compared to June 2010, and 0.4 points compared to May 2011.

The percentage of survey participants who report year-on-year improvement in their businesses has gone up by 24.5 points compared to June 2010, and 10.1 points compared to May 2011.

The EU-27 Retail Confidence Indicator was at a value of -2.3 in June of 2011. It has therefore gone up by 0.3 since the previous month, and 1.3 compared to the same time a year ago. The EU-27 Retail Confidence Index has, as it has in the previous five months of the year, appeared below TEPE, in the negatives.

Looking at the sub-sectors, motor vehicles displayed the best performance in June 2011 in comparison to the same period a year ago. While the sectors of food, drink and tobacco products performed above average, the textiles, readymade garments, footwear, grocers selling more than one product, market and large store sectors, as well as the "other" sectors performed below average value. The furniture and lighting equipment sectors performed poorly, appearing close to their value of a year ago. The electronic house appliances, radio and television sectors dropped in TEPE compared to last year.

On a question-based reading of the TEPE poll, June 2011 saw some limited recovery in employment expectations in the next three months and store number expectations next year. The same period displays strong recovery in all other areas. In comparison to last year, expected sale prices for the next three months and expected orders from suppliers made significant recoveries since May of 2011, while employment expectations for the next three months have declined considerably.