Expectations in the Retail Sector in the Rise After 5 Months In October, TEPE remained in the negatives, with a value of -2.9.

ANKARA - In October 2012, TEPE increased slightly month-on-month but showed a year-on-year decrease. Business volume compared to the same period last year and the past three months diminished both month-on-month and year-on-year. Expectations on sales and orders placed with suppliers in the next three months increased for the first time after 5 months. Retail sector confidence in the EU picked up month-on-month by 2.4 points.

With a limited rise in October, TEPE remained in the negatives, with a value of -2.9. TEPE therefore increased month-on-month by 1.9 points but decreased year-on-year by 1.8 points.

An assessment of seasonally adjusted TEPE values in 2012 in comparison with 2011 reveals that retail confidence stood below 2011 in 2012. The performance of retailers was weaker in 2012 than in 2011. Quarterly figures for 2012 indicate that retail confidence in the third quarter of 2012 was weaker than it was in the first quarter.

The balance value of the expectations for the next three months stood at 16.2 in October. 39.7 percent of TEPE survey participants expect an improvement in their business activities in the next three months while 30.4 percent expect a deterioration. This implies a 3.9-point increase compared to October 2011 and a 7.5-point increase compared to September 2012.

In October 2012, 24 percent of the participants declared a year-on-year improvement in business activities whereas 48.1 percent declared deterioration. Volume of business activities, therefore declined by 2.4 points compared to September 2012 and by 6.1 points compared to October 2011.

EU-27 Retail Confidence Index had a value of -12.8 in October 2012, with a month-on-month increase by 2.4 points and a year-on-year decrease by 0.8 points. The Index that recorded the lowest value in the last 39 months in September moved up in October. The EU-27 Retail Confidence Index had a stronger performance than TEPE compared to both October 2011 and September 2012.

Comparing the retail confidence indices for EU-27 countries and Turkey, year-on-year drops were observed in all EU countries but the UK, Sweden, Latvia, and Slovakia. The sharpest drops were observed in Finland, Slovenia, Italy, Lithuania, Greece, and Germany while Greece and Slovenia suffered also the sharpest month-on-month declines.

Food, beverages and tobacco products sector was the best performer sub-sector of October compared to the same period last year, followed by the motor vehicles sector. Non-specialized stores declined at the average rate compared to October 2011. The “others” (gas station, pharmacy, perfumery, hardware, glassware, stationery etc.); textiles, ready-made clothing and footwear; and furniture, lighting equipment and household articles nec sectors faced drops larger than the average for October 2011. The sharpest year-on-year decline was in the electrical appliances, radio, and televisions sector.

Question-based assessment of TEPE survey results reveals that expectations for sales and orders placed with suppliers in the next three months increased both year-on-year and month-on-month. On the other hand, level of business activities compared to the past three months and last year decreased year-on-year and month-on-month. Expectations for total employment in the next three months improved compared to October 2011 and declined compared to September 2012.

Konya Retail Sector index lower than Turkey over the last two years:

In the context of the Konya Province Retail Confidence Index (KOPE) carried out in cooperation by Konya Chamber of Commerce (KTO) and the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey (TEPAV), face-to-face interviews with 300 retailers from Konya have been carried out on a monthly basis since February 2012.

In October, Konya Retail Confidence Index had a value of -4.1, compared to TEPE at -1.3. Konya’s retail sector therefore has performed worse than overall Turkey. KOPE and TEPE decreased month-on-month by 2.3 points and 1.8 points, respectively.

Expectations in Konya’s retail sector for sales and orders placed with suppliers in the next three months declined month-on-month while the level of business activities compared to the past three months and the previous year increased month-on-month.