Retail Sector Non-Buoyant in the First Month of 2013 With the ongoing negative trend, the TEPE had a value of minus 2.9 in January 2013

ANKARA - In January 2013, TEPE showed negligible year-on-year change despite the month-on-month recovery. Expectations for sales, sales prices and employment in the next three months picked up compared to January 2012 while expectations for orders placed with suppliers, sales and sales prices in the next three months weakened month-on-month. The volume of business activities compared to the previous three months and previous year increased year-on-year. Retail confidence in the EU picked up compared to both December 2012 and January 2012.

The negative trend in TEPE continued in the new year. With a value of minus 2.9 in January 2013, TEPE increased month-on-month by 0.3 points and year-on-year by 0.1 points.

33.3 percent of TEPE survey participants expect an improvement in their business activities in the next three months while 31.1 percent expect deterioration. The balance value of the expectations for the next three months stood at 11.2 in January 2013. This implies an increase by 0.9 points compared to January 2012 and a decrease by 1.9 points compared to December 2012.

In January 2013, 19.8 percent of the participants declared a year-on-year improvement in business activities whereas 46 percent declared deterioration. Anticipation for year-on-year recovery in business activities therefore declined by 0.1 points compared to December 2012 and increased by 6.7 points compared to January 2012.

The EU-27 Retail Confidence Index had a value of -9.5 in January 2013, increasing both month-on-month and year-on-year by 0.8 points and 4.4 points, respectively. The EU-27 Retail Confidence Index performed better than Turkey and Eurozone indices compared to both January 2012 and December 2012.

Comparing the retail confidence indices for EU-27 countries and Turkey, highest year-on-year rises were observed in the UK, Sweden, and Bulgaria while the sharpest drops were observed in Holland, Finland, Austria and Poland. Finland and Slovenia enjoyed the largest month-on-month rise in retail confidence across the EU.

Compared to January 2012, motor vehicles sector was the strongest performer. “The others” (gas station, pharmacy, perfumery, hardware, glassware, stationery etc), non specialized stores and food, beverages and tobacco products sectors enhanced their performance compared to the previous year while the rest declined year-on-year. The sharpest year-on-year decline was observed in the electrical appliances, radio, and televisions sector.

Question-based assessment of the TEPE survey results shows that compared to December 2012, expectation for orders, sales, and sales prices in the next three months and the number of stores in the next twelve months decreased; volume of business activities compared to the past three months increased. Compared to January 2012, all indicators except for the expectations for orders and level of inventory improved. The biggest improvement was in the volume of business activities compared to the past three month and past year and in the expectations for employment for the next three months.

Konya’s retail sector up after 4 months

In the context of the Konya Province Retail Confidence Index (KOPE) carried out in cooperation by Konya Chamber of Commerce (KTO) and the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey (TEPAV), face-to-face interviews with 300 retailers from Konya have been carried out on a monthly basis since February 2012.

In January 2013, KOPE had a value of -3.6. Following the decline in the last four months, the city’s retail sector has performed better than overall Turkey in January 2013. KOPE showed a month-on-month increase by 5.9 points.

Expectations for sales in the next three months went up to the positives for the first time after three months. Expectations for orders, sales prices and employment in the next three months recovered compared to December 2012. Fifty-three percent of retailers in Konya believe that the volume of business activities worsened compared to January 2012.