Turkey Catches Up the EU for the First Time in 14 Months Turkey had the highest month-on-month and the third highest year-on-year increase in retail confidence across the EU-28.
TEPE, which has inclined up with the start of 2015 had a value of -0.6 in February 2015. The index therefore increased both month-on-month and year-on-year by 7.5 points and 8.3 points, respectively. The surge was driven by the decline in the volume of inventories as well as the improvement in anticipated business recovery compared to past 3 months.
The balance value of the expectations in the next 3 months which opened 2015 with a surge reached 13 in February. Sales expectations for the next 3 months declined by 1.6 points compared to February 2014, but increased by 0.8 points compared to January 2015.
In February 2015, 52.9 percent of TEPE survey participants declared that they expected business activities to improve in the next 3 months while 20.1 percent expect business activities to decline. 27 percent of the participants do not expect business activities.
The balance value of the volume of business activities compared to the same month in the year before had a value of -22.4 in February 2015. Business volume compared to the year before increased by 11.1 points compared to January 2015 and by 22 points compared to February 2014.
21.9 percent of TEPE survey participants declared an improvement in their business activities compared to the year before while 48.6 percent declared deterioration. 29.5 percent of the participants declared that business activities did not change compared to February 2014.
Concerning sub-sectors, the largest year-on-year improvement was in the “others” (gas station, pharmacy, perfumery, hardware, glassware, stationery etc) sector. This was followed by “non-specialized stores” and “food, beverages and tobacco products” sectors. The increase was above the sub-sector average in the mentioned sectors and below the average in the “electrical appliances, radio, and televisions, “textiles, readymade clothing and footwear” and “motor vehicles” sectors. The only sector that had a year-on-year dclne was the “furniture, lighting equipment, and household articles” sector.
Question-based assessment of the TEPE survey results reveals that “the volume of inventories” declined while “the volume of business activities compared to the past year” and “expectations for orders placed with suppliers and for employment” increased compared to both February 2014 and January 2015. All indicators improved in comparison to January 2015.
The EU-28 Retail Confidence Index had a value of -1.0 in February 2015, declining by 2.2 points month-on-month and by 4.4 points year-on-year. Turkey outperformed both the EU-28 and the Eurozone in terms of month-on-month and year-on-year change. Turkey had the highest month-on-month and the third highest year-on-year increase in retail confidence across the EU-28.
Slovenia had the highest year-on-year improvement in retail confidence in EU-28 and compared to Turkey. Slovenia was followed by Spain, Turkey, and Czech Republic. The sharpest year-on-year declines were in the United Kingdom, Finland, and Belgium. Compared to January 2015, Turkey had the largest improvement in retail confidence. EU-28 retail confidence was weaker than Eurozone in terms of both month-on-month and year-on-year figures.
Retail Confidence in Konya Continues to Rise
In the context of the Konya Province Retail Confidence Index (KOPE) carried out in cooperation by Konya Chamber of Commerce (KTO) and the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey (TEPAV), face-to-face interviews with 300 retailers from Konya have been carried out on a monthly basis since February 2012.
In February, TEPE had a value of -0.6 compared to KOPE at 5.8 points. KOPE increased year-on-year by 10.5 points while TEPE increased by 8.3 points. Month-on-month improvement in KOPE was 2.9 points. Konya’s retail sector outperformed both overall Turkey and the EU-28.
