Swinging the lead
12 July 2010
An inflation targeting regime that takes into account the real value of exchange rate after ensuring a low level of inflation. A regular foreign exchange purchase program as far as applicable that also makes sure that the resultant liquidity injection to the market does not lead to an inflationary pressure. Searching for ways to prevent short term capital inflows and for international cooperation possibilities to this end. An implementation framework that will secure the sustainability of fiscal discipline in order to create the environment suitable for taking the mentioned steps. A structural reform attack which realizes that the main factor that will improve Turkey's international competitiveness is to enhance the productivity of firms.
Estimating the past
11 July 2010
Turkey's economy did not grow in the first quarter compared to the previous quarter. Last Thursday I made an assessment about economic growth for the second quarter as well as the rest of the year. The data at hand suggested that the economy will grow quarter-on-quarter. This "estimation" was based on the real credit growth, export recovery and the positive developments with respect to the capacity utilization ratio.
All we need is courage
08 July 2010
I guess most of you are aware that the wave of optimism of the late 2009 that the world economy will recover and growth rates will reach to reasonable levels is not felt much recently. Important economists started to write warning articles more frequently. A new fiscal stimulus package is recommended against the persistent unemployment rate in the USA. There are credible ideas that the belt-tightening measures in the European Union, particularly the decisions made in the Germany and the arguments of the President of European Central Bank, are too early.
Second quarter will go well; but then what?
05 July 2010
Today I am interested in the future growth performance of Turkey. At the first stage, I will focus on recent data and try to find out whether or not there will be a significant difference between the first and the second quarters. My objective is to estimate the pace of growth in the second quarter in comparison with the first quarter and than try to make a comment on the performance in the second half of the year.
Dual-character growth performance, again
01 July 2010
Yesterday growth rate for the first quarter was announced. As expected gross domestic product (GDP) increased significantly compared to the same period in the year before by 117 percent. The rat for the previous quarter was 6 percent. Thus, the economy has been growing for the last two quarters, which is pleasing.
Just before growth rates are announced
28 June 2010
On Wednesday growth rates for the first quarter of 2010 will be announced. The figures will suggest that Turkey's economy grew quite rapidly compared to the same period in 2009. Commentators have a consensus on this. On the other hand, we will also realize that compared to the peak level before the global crisis gross domestic product (GDP) and thus GDP per capita are still quite low.
Does the digestion capacity of the EU decrease day by day?
27 June 2010
Recently it was announced that the European Union's (EU) statistics agency Eurostat will be furnished with a broader set of authorities to be able to audit the budget accounts of the member states more cautiously. The decision was made at the EU finance ministers' meeting held in the second week of June. Olli Rehn, EU Commissioner Responsible for Economic and Monetary Affairs, stated that in the context of the new auditing authorities of the Union, the national statistics of Bulgaria might be examined.
Turkey’s exports in Euro and Dollar terms
24 June 2010
We must admit that the current problems of the European Union (EU) furnished us with a lot of material to write on. One among these was that Turkey's exports will be affected negatively both as the domestic demand across EU would drop due to the tightening measures planned to be implemented and as Euro would depreciate.
Keynes: Dead and alive
21 June 2010
Recently a significant discussion has emerged among members of governments in developed countries and famous academics. Shall countries initiate fiscal policy tightening or is it too soon for such policies?
A six-item export policy proposal
20 June 2010
My last two commentaries started with the risk that the recent developments in the European Union affect Turkey's exports adversely. In particular I was interested in the steps that could be taken to tackle similar problems Turkey's exports can encounter in the future. So I will continue with this today.