Fatih Özatay, PhD
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Required reserve ratio policy might “throw a curve”
If the motivation for the latest MCP decision was proper, so was the decision not to raise reserve requirements. I openly stated on Tuesday my expectation about the…
It is dubious whether recovery has started
There isn’t yet any strong sign of moderate economic recovery having started in the first quarter I will make a pause on the series about the widening gap between…
The constraints FX open position imposes
Due to the FX open position of the economy, rapid increases in exchange rate would disrupt balance sheets and hence lower growth. I will continue with the challenges…
A hard-to-cure disease
High FX open position is an economic disease: the economy is indebted in FX terms. During the last two pieces, I focused on the challenges facing economies whose FX debt…
Strange dynamics
In the case of turmoil in international financial markets, economies with high FX open position are affected at the highest degree Last time I argued that real…
The inability to become normal
Factors that trigger exchange rate hikes will inevitably affect the economic growth and unemployment rate adversely. The rise in the exchange rate beyond the CPI…
Egyptian economy
Budget deficit is one of the most dangerous indicators. The year-end estimation for 2012 is 10 percent of GDP. I was at the nineteenth annual conference of the Economic…
First signs of recovery in industrial production
4 percent growth rate target is still achievable. In addition, industrial output figures for January imply that a mild recovery has started. The Turkish Statistical…
What are the Central Bank’s options?
With credit growth rate being substantially above the targeted level, the MPC will continue increasing reserve requirements. The Central Bank (CB) targets three…
Inflationary dynamics have not changed
If the Central Bank intervenes to lower lira’s value as was done in the late 2010 and early 2011, inflation will increase. The same old scene has been playing in…
Additional information needed on credit figures
Credit growth rates vary between the reports of intermediaries, banks and research institutes. Domestic credit growth rate has become an important variable for…
4 percent growth target in jeopardy
CUR figures for January and February reveal that industrial output might increase to some degree in Q1/2013, after the worst quarter of 2012 with this respect. February…