Fatih Özatay, PhD
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US debt ceiling
It is estimated that the Treasury will need a new raise in the limit by 19 May 2013, which means that the Republican and Democratic parties will have to reconcile once…
April capacity utilization and confidence figures are not pleasing
In April, CUR decreased year-on-year by 1.5 percent, that is, at a rate larger than in February and March. Yesterday two important data which are indicative of growth…
The TEPAV Financial Stress Index
The TEPAV Financial Stress Index foresees the possibility of economic contraction in a given quarter two to three months ahead. GDP figures are released with a delay.…
World Economic Outlook from a short-term perspective
Concerning Turkey’s major trading partners, growth estimate was revised down by 0.2 points for European Union and by 0.3 points for Middle East and North Africa. The…
MPC decisions in April meeting
The Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank (MPC-CB) held its April meeting yesterday. The MPC decided to cut the policy rate and the interest rate corridor by 0.5…
Monetary Policy Board convenes
Will the MPC reduce the policy rate? It might, by 0.25 points if it decided to cut the interest rate corridor. But it would be quite difficult to explain the grounds.…
Targeting real exchange rate and reducing volatility
The exchange rate regime almost becomes a pre-determined fixed-growth exchange rate regime. Before the latest shower of data, I was talking about a severe economic…
Caution against over-information
I just want to stress that we have to be cautious and avoid over-excitation when using seasonally and working day adjusted series. Last time I said over-information…
Are the signals clearer?
With the industrial output growth in February, however, those signaling the start of a moderate recovery are stronger now. The most popular question lately is whether or…
A long way to go
For the consumer price inflation to decrease to 5 percent, headline inflation must decrease to 3 percent. I want to continue with inflation dynamics from where I left on…
A new perspective on inflation
Global competitiveness cannot be improved simply by intentionally pushing up exchange rate. The concomitant inflation hikes offset the competitiveness effect. The rain…
The economy grew only by 2.2 percent in 2012
Is Turkey’s sustainable growth rate so far assumed to be at the 4-4.5 percent interval declining? Gross domestic product (GDP) figures for 2012 were released yesterday:…