Fatih Özatay, PhD
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The latest CBT decisions
The CB is determined to take stronger steps if the rise in credit growth rate continues and tends to turn permanent. The Central Bank (CB) Monetary Policy Committee…
The BRICs and Turkey (5)
The picture is quite clear for Turkey: it cannot sustain the recent economic performance unless the mentioned conditions change. This is the last commentary of the…
Growth accelerations
Achieving high growth rates is not a rare phenomenon. There is a study released in 2005 on this issue (the details f the study are given below). The authors examine the…
The BRICs and Turkey (4)
Turkey cannot sustain the recent high growth performance unless it makes a breakthrough in overcoming the major bottlenecks. The last time I cited a quite recent study.…
The BRICs and Turkey (3)
Its “seventh-grade dropout” adult population coupled with low savings and investment rates do not depict a bright picture about Turkey’s future. Having a high domestic…
The BRICs and Turkey (2)
China, India and Korea will be able to initiate major investments without borrowing from abroad for a longer time. Last Thursday I compared the BRICs (Brazil, Russia,…
The BRICs and Turkey (1)
For the 2010-2012 period, Russia has the highest GDP per capita among the BRICs. Turkey’s GDP per capita is higher than the rest of the group. Brazil, Russia, India and…
A pessimistic assessment on Europe
Even a limited downturn in Europe might risk 4 percent growth in Turkey. Industrial output figures for November will have been announced when you read these lines.…
Inflation outlook from a different perspective
It is hard to overcome the rigidity and Turkey generally was unable to overcome it. As a result, inflation rate commonly exceeded the target, damaging confidence. The…
Though the picture seems complex, it is not
In the third quarter of 2012, Turkey’s economy grew by 1.6 percent. It appears that the fourth quarter will not be worse than the third in terms of growth performance.…
Better keep optimistic at the beginning of the year
There are critical questions, but I will only give the good news today. Happy new year! During the last commentary of 2012, I tried to assess the year from different…
The same old phenomenon
Macroeconomic stability is not the only factor that attracts foreign funds. The risk appetite also must be strong. It is possible to draw two contrasting pictures. On…