Fatih Özatay, PhD
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Looking towards 2012 (4)
If growth rate remains around the potential rate at 4 percent, unemployment rate will be rigid at around the current 9 percent. In 2013 the economic outlook might as…
Looking towards 2012 (3)
If external conditions evolve in line with the assumptions I presented in the previous commentary, 2013 will be a better year than 2012 for Turkey in terms of the…
Looking towards 2013 (2)
As the majority of the conditions that will influence Turkey’s economic performance in 2013 are not under our control, we have to design a set of different scenarios.…
Looking toward 2013 (1)
In the light of the available information, we can suggest that Turkey’s annual growth rate in 2012 will be around 2.5 percent. Having approached the new year, it is time…
Credit growth rate or interest rate? (2)
Encouraging different growth rates for different credit types might trigger investment expenditures. This would be the best option concerning the current account…
Credit growth rate or interest rate?
Interest rate cuts will not have much influence on growth rate unless the upper limit of credit growth rate is increased. Assume that Turkey wants to enhance growth…
No surprises so far, but how about the fourth quarter?
Fourth quarter will not be substantially different from the third, which implies that fourth growth will bring slow growth rather than economic contraction. After all…
Abandoning the conventional: is it sustainable?
The CB’s new policy either did not contribute to the process or made a negligible contribution. The Central Bank of Turkey (CB) introduced a new monetary policy in…
Even if the policy worked…
Credit growth rate started to decrease almost a year after the CB’s interventions and two quarters after the latest intervention Annual consumer price inflation in…
Was it the required reserve ratio or another instrument?
Credit growth rate diminished substantially in the fourth quarter, when required reserve ratio was lowered on two different interventions. It is highlighted on all…
Getting a clear signal in all the noise
Abundance of data sometimes causes a lot of “noise.” And it is a difficult task to get a clear signal in the noise. Turkey used to be an absolutely “data-poor” country,…
The pursuit of transparency (4)
We don’t know the CBT’s estimations of credit growth rate under different scenarios on external conditions. Inflation reports are among the key communication tools of…