Fatih Özatay, PhD
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The pursuit of transparency (3)
The CBT can fulfill the authorities granted by the relevant law more easily if it helps economic actors shape healthy inflation and interest rate expectations. The…
Lessons Turkey can take from Japan
With its production structure driven by external demand, the output of the automotive sector decreased inevitably. Japan’s exports in the first ten months of the year…
The pursuit of transparency (2)
Yes, the Central Bank of Turkey has multiple objectives. Does it have any list of priorities? Do circumstances affect the priorities? The high current account deficit…
Would Turkey get the rating upgrade anyway?
If unemployment rate were 10 or 10.5 percent today, would Fitch still upgrade Turkey to the investment level? Many developed countries have still been fighting with the…
The pursuit of transparency (1)
Although certain monetary policy models go out of date and are replaced by more fashionable ones, transparency was never abandoned as a principle. Looking at the last…
What steps will the Central Bank take next?
The only factor that could possibly limit foreign exchange inflows towards Turkey and its peers is the risk of a fiscal cliff in the US. Here is a quote from the Central…
Industrial output growth was no surprise
Economic recovery in the fourth quarter is probable; but it appears that the recovery, if any, will start at best in November. At times, when I say “I will address this…
Obama, Fitch and the value of the lira
The investment grade will most certainly put a downwards pressure on exchange rate and an upwards pressure on the current account deficit. At the end of the latest…
Exchange rate and headline inflation
The direction to which the headline inflation will heads relates basically to that exchange rate will head. Inflation statistics for October were no surprise: consumer…
Spending on durables qualifies as consumption?
Some of the common macroeconomic models take the expenditure on durables as investment expenditures. Does the spending on durable goods such as refrigerators, washing…
Indicators of dual character
The growth rate in the third quarter will most likely be below the unpleasing growth rate of the first half of the year. Foreign trade statistics for September were…
October was not different
I don’t see any sign of a revival in industrial output in October compared to the third quarter. Capacity utilization ratio (CUR) in industrial sector for October was…