Fatih Özatay, PhD
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Adjusted growth figures necessary
It will be quite useful if the TURKSTAT releases GDP figures adjusted to extraordinary movements in gold trade. The Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT) has to…
Current account deficit decreases, financing eases
It is quite pleasing that current account deficit has been decreasing and the quality of finance has been improving. Balance of payments figures for May were announced.…
Is the phase of slow growth over?
In May, industrial output picked up by 5.9 percent year-on-year. Have the period of slow growth that started in the first quarter of 2011 ended in the first quarter of…
Temporary gold exports and repercussions on growth
If Turkey’s gold exports were one million dollar lower; growth rate would be 2.6 percent instead of 3.2 percent. Recent changes in domestic demand have verified the…
An amusing debate
In 2012 Turkey can achieve 4 percent growth as targeted in the Medium Term Program, which is in harmony with my expectations for soft landing. “Hardness” and “softness”…
Quite a soft landing
Though growth rates have decreased remarkably, there appears a soft rather than the dreaded hard landing. Gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2012 was…
What the Ankara subway construction made me think…
When designing and implementing economic policies, “potential future budget deficits” must be taken into account. Now it is way easier to explain the troubles high…
Second quarter’s growth outlook becomes clearer
It is highly probable that slow growth – zero or negative growth when adjusted to population growth – has pertained in the second quarter of the year. The latest data on…
Does Turkey always have to sacrifice growth?
Isn’t it a major weakness for Turkey to sacrifice growth in order to ease its current account deficit? The economy slowed down drastically in the first quarter of the…
On inflation
If price of crude oil does not change, the future performance of inflation will depend on the exchange rate developments. In recent commentaries, I assessed economic…
Is the second quarter different from the first? (2)
If the downturn in the index is over, is this sufficient evidence that economic recovery has started as of the second quarter? Figures suggest that first quarter’s…
Is the second quarter different from the first?
It would not be a surprise if Q1 growth falls below 2 percent. More importantly, figures imply that Q2 growth might not be any different, either. Gross domestic product…