Fatih Özatay, PhD
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Does low interest rate actually boost growth?
The responsibility of these does not fall exclusively on the Central Bank. It would be extremely unfair to claim so; but so would to ignore the role of monetary policy…
Some observations about the labor market
What would the unemployment rate be if labor force participation rate sharply surged to a level close to that in the troubled countries of Europe? Yesterday labor market…
How shiny is Turkey’s economy?
If the below table is considered an indicator of how Turkish economy shines like a star, I am really concerned about the future; because if so we are toast! I am sure…
It is not necessarily trivial
Given the current environment, discussing this detail might seem trivial; yet it is important to consider tiny details when forecasting economic prospects. Industrial…
Enriching the monetary policy framework?
Enriching the framework does not mean – I hope my former colleagues at the Central Bank won’t be offended – making a mess of it. For now, let’s put aside the…
It has become even more tangled
With saving instruments such as deposits and bonds having no real return, consumption was encouraged. Rumor has it that 100 truthful economists, each from a different…
Confessions (2)
Net inflows to Turkey, which averaged a monthly $10 billion in the first four months of the year, declined to one fifth in the following five months About a month and a…
Beard or arm?
Some of you might say that both of our arms were already cut off before this probe. I have to say it is an argument to consider. Remember the analogy Sokollu Mehmed…
Prospects for the Turkish economy in 2014 (4)
The pessimistic scenario might become the “baseline scenario.” And the recent shock that shook Turkey intensifies this possibility. I wrote the paragraphs below about 10…
The massive bribery probe and the Turkish economy
If the current economic structure of Turkey were similar to that before the 2001 crisis, the economy would have shaken so badly. The probe initiated recently in Turkey…
It’s not only inflation that is stiff
The outlook of unemployment in Turkey is same as that of inflation. The mean is stiff, and we cannot overcome it permanently. Labor force statistics for September were…
Prospects for the Turkish economy in 2014 (3)
Non-gold exports increased by 6.3 percent year-on-year in the first 10 months, about two times of that in 2012. Here is the summary of my baseline scenario concerning…