Fatih Özatay, PhD
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Prospects for the Turkish economy in 2014 (2)
3.5 percent GDP growth would be a reasonable forecast. A sharper drop in net capital inflows or a significant rise in interest rate would limit GDP growth further and…
GDP growth in 2013
The official growth forecast for 2013 at 3.6 percent probably will be realized readily. In fact, GDP growth might be even higher below 4 percent. As I have shared with…
Prospects for the Turkish economy in 2014 (1)
If you are not implementing an economic policy measure that will radically alter the inflationary outlook, changing inflation depends on luck. A change in inflation = A…
The baseline scenario for 2014 (2)
Even the FED does not initiate tapering on 17-18 December, the statements after the meeting might alter expectations on the timing and the magnitude of tapering. It’s…
The BRSA’s decisions: Both timely and not (1)
These steps will further reduce GDP growth in 2014. From this perspective, the decisions were untimely. But when you neglect this significant delay, the decisions were…
The baseline scenario for 2014 (1)
Taking into account the current vulnerabilities facing the Turkish economy, two external determinants come to the fore: the US and Europe. It is almost the end of the…
Confessions (1)
It is time for self-criticism. But please hear my version of story first and then decide. To be continued. If I were you, I had long ago asked myself if it a waste of…
Partly back to the conventional
The CB’ decision will increase the predictability of short term market interest rates. From one perspective, this in a sense indicates a return to a more “conventional”…
Success = Talent + Luck
Does Turkey implement any anti-inflationary policy that we expect a “permanent” drop in inflation rate? ‘Success = Talent + Luck’ ‘Great success = a little more talent +…
The past is gone
There is a regression to the mean. This is not the fate of Turkey, of course. What we need is to realize that the past is gone and make a fresh new start. It is the…
As net capital inflow decreases...
A significant decline in net capital inflow implies hikes in exchange and interest rates and drops in domestic credit growth rate. Turkey spends a large proportion of…
Why loans go to shopping malls instead of students?
Why is Turkey’s financial system, which is strong and generous enough to extend million-dollar loans for shopping malls, not as generous when extending student loans?…