Fatih Özatay, PhD
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FED: Then and now (1)
If the FED does “now” what it did “then” (in terms of direction and magnitude) what would be the consequences for Turkey? In the last couple of weeks Turkey’s interest…
Consumption on the rise, investments stagnant
In the light of the information available, 4 percent growth in 2013 is still achievable. Lately I have addressed the vulnerabilities facing Turkey’s economy and…
It’s not too late
Despite all the praise and credit, no country is immune to crises. This is a critical lesson to learn. Do you remember the well-known economic crisis in Mexico, also…
Let’s hope for the best
Turkey will be transferring abroad some portion of its savings, which are already remarkably low. Let’s hope for the best! A storyline we frequently hear nowadays: “In…
You only die once, but...
You only die once. The danger of this policy is that it might temporarily erode Turkey’s competitiveness. Low interest rate policy and generous liquidity injections of…
Does the CB need an alternative policy?
A second rating agency upgrading Turkey’s rating is a positive development concerning both the cost and volume of borrowing. Two positive developments we heard this…
Disequilibrium should not become the norm
In a country like Turkey, which has to choose between low growth and high current account deficit; what does it mean if interest rates are lower than inflation rate? The…
Perhaps avoiding multi-objective policies should be the objective
Short-term capital inflows have gradually increased, but exchange rate is not volatile. Real exchange rate has reached 121. Central banks that implement inflation…
A complicated situation
We are faced with a complicated situation. Evidently, the critical challenge is that there are several monetary policy targets. Given the Central Bank’s (CB) discourse…
Monetary policy and the brown pill
Not only does the savings rate go downhill; international comparisons validate the underperformance. While we were almost convinced that everything was fine, I am afraid…
Positive, as expected and a question mark
Taking into account the capacity utilization and real sector confidence figures for April, it is doubtful whether the recovery implied by import growth will be…
The TEPAV Financial Stress Index (2)
The TEPAV Financial Stress Index was designed to predicate the risk of economic contraction before GDP figures are released. Last week I talked about a new index TEPAV…