Medium run perspective of Turkey is the EU
07 May 2009
What did we underline a while ago? We underlined that the crisis periods are the periods of "saving the day". Crises periods were not time for heroic actions for those who undertook the responsibility of managing a company. There was no need to beat a dead horse or be embarrassed. The important thing was to watch out each step you take than making long-term plans. It would be wise to take one step at a time. Then, what does this 'medium run perspective' put in the title with big fonts mean? Does it have any meaning? Let us see.
IMF now stands by the poor
05 May 2009
Global financial crisis is opening out the door of a process of transformation. Those that fail to acknowledge the transformation cannot manage it. What was the motto? Either we will manage the crisis or it will manage us. Either we will try to perceive and manipulate the global transformation dynamics or the transformation process initiated by the global crisis will eventually change us regardless of our desire. Either we will benefit from the transformed aspect and better control the cost of the crisis, or the crisis will thrust through us while we sit and wonder what goes on. We believe that what goes around in the world is not closely monitored in Turkey. For instance, that the IMF is currently working on a social conditionality geared to protect the poor from the impacts of the crisis
It is easy for China; but what about Turkey?
04 May 2009
Global crisis revealed that most of developing countries must review their growth models. Take for instance the economies highly export-driven. If a crisis is not only global but also shows its impacts over a long time period, export-driven countries are deeply affected. When they become unable to export, they experience high decreases in growth rate.
We will be affected more in the medium term
03 May 2009
If you take a look at the online commentaries on the global crisis, two points grab your attention. First refers to the opinions emphasizing that first signs of recovery in real sector might be on the way. If you noticed, I used an ambiguous expression; 'might be on the way' but the commentaries also reflect such expressions.
No one likes economists
02 May 2009
Trends in the United States of America (USA) indicate that people hate bankers the most. In the list of the most hated, corporate managers, executive board managers and CEO's rank the second. This phenomenon is in particular valid for publicly held companies. In the list, economists in general rank the third. The issue now occupies articles. There is a certain truth: No one likes economists.
Export performance problems might continue in 2010
30 April 2009
This is the last day of April. In other words, one-thirds of the year has passed. Yet, no worthwhile economic program to limit the contractionary impact of the global crisis on the Turkish economy has been announced. As you might remember, if all measures presented in the crisis report prepared by TEPAV were implemented in March, growth rate was improved by 1.9 points: rate of contraction estimated as 5.5 percent was limited at 3.6 percent.
How can export expectations get better while our share in the European Union market shrinks?
30 April 2009
As you might remember, last Tuesday, we started asking "What is the problem in expectations surveys?" There observed something strange. Rate of those whose expectation for "export orders over the next three months" was recovering increased steeply. Expectations got better; however, over the same period annual growth forecasts for our basic export markets were revised downwards. As the question on export orders was a part of real sector confidence index, we changed the question as follows: "Is it possible that market actors while passing through lands, whose roadmap is not known, fail to decide how to formulate their expectations? Do expectations surveys reflect confusion?"Today, let us continue with the same topic.
How can you expect an increase in export orders given that German economy is contracting?
28 April 2009
It appears that there is a problem. Don't you think so? Recently, 2009 growth expectations are revised downward for each of our export markets. However, business tendency survey announced by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) reveals that "expectations for export orders over the next three months" ensures rapid recovery after sinking to the lowest level in November 2008. The number of those expecting an increase in export orders over the next three months is 14 percent higher than that of those expecting a fall. As a result, real sector confidence index goes up. How can this be assessed? What is going on? Can this be the green shoot we have been waiting for?
Harms of globalization (2)
27 April 2009
Title of the column is 'harms of globalization' for the last two days. However, I believe that the benefits of globalization are more than its harms. Gradual increase of foreign trade between countries, articulation of supply chains and even the rise and mobility of financial capital flows...
Harms of globalization
26 April 2009
In 2000, ratio of Turkish exports to national incomes was around 10.4 percent. This rate gradually increased in upcoming years; for instance reached 15.2 percent in 2005 and 18 percent in 2008. I believe, in the face of this development, that we can conclude: In recent years, production level has become more sensitive to export level as compared to the past. Given the Latin American debt crisis that covered almost whole 1980 period, this is a highly favorable development. Between 1982 and 1989, majority of the Latin American countries become unable to pay their debts. Among the main characteristics of the countries facing problems in paying debts was that ratio of foreign debt to exports was quite high (mainly debts between governments, different from the present phenomenon). However, cou