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    Have you ever visited the Prime Ministry web site?
    Güven Sak, PhD 17 January 2009
    United States of America is getting ready for the Obama era. Inauguration is to be held next week. Bush period of "So many leadership with no followers", as Harvard professor Joseph Nye puts it, is coming to an end. Just a while before, we were saying that "President Obama will be the first president of the Star Trek generation" - in the article talking about "going to places where no one has dared to go before".  Presidency of Obama highlights that some things are not going to be the same for the United States of America. Please, do not show displeasure and say "nothing ever changes there".  You shall give America its due. But, do not worry, today, I do not have any intention to comment on America. I am just seeking to make an extended introduction on the subject of internet and communica [More]
    A bit of geometrics: Circle and chord
    Fatih Özatay, PhD 15 January 2009
    Note: Tangent is the line passing through a point on the circle. Chord is the line segment linking two points on a circle. The longest chord of a circle is the one passing through the center of the circle. That is, in time, a tangent can evolve into a chord. The acts of the chord cannot be determined at all; it can go and pass through the center of the circle. [More]
    Prerequisite for changing the reality is accepting it
    Güven Sak, PhD 15 January 2009
    You might be discontent with the reality you face. Changing that reality might be the main purpose of your life. However, you cannot fulfill that purpose by pretending as if that reality does not exist. Recently, in Turkey, we observe "a tendency towards flight from reality" with respect to both economic policy and foreign policy. Since leadership means accepting and trying to change the reality, this tendency is certainly bad. And in fact, it is extremely dangerous. Let's see why. [More]
    Optimistic growth estimations
    Fatih Özatay, PhD 12 January 2009
    Estimations for global growth are continuously pushed down. For instance, IMF recently stated that the new estimations to be announced this month will imply relatively lower growth rates than the previous month. First estimations on the growth rate for Turkey in 2009 show that in the first half of the year the economy will contract. It is emphasized that the growth in the third quarter will be around zero and a rapid recovery will take place in the last quarter of 2009. The estimations for annual performance estimate a growth by 0-0.5 percent in average. Of course there are also colleagues that expect lower or higher growth rates. However, there is a consensus that it is a higher possibility that the growth rate will be below the given range. [More]
    Passiveness prevails in the mid January
    Fatih Özatay, PhD 11 January 2009
    Production levels are steeply falling down. The growth estimations for 2009 are modified downwards. There even exists a risk that the economy will contract. So, what would you do under such circumstances? An alternative can be inaction. I may list a lot of reasons why such a passive attitude will be assumed; but today I will enumerate just seven. [More]
    Are we the control group of an experiment?
    Güven Sak, PhD 10 January 2009
    Turkish government has been monitoring the financial crisis that has been blatantly arriving here in Turkey as long for almost one and a half years without taking any precautionary measures. Observing such contentment, one cannot stop thinking that the government has an intention. Recently, a friend of mine said "I am afraid that Turkey might be the control group." Why not? Maybe, Turkey is the control group of the experiment conducted to understand the measures required to tackle the crisis. Can this be possible?  Let us see. [More]
    ‘What shall we do’ part for the IMF
    Fatih Özatay, PhD 08 January 2009
      Oh Dear, what will happen now? Just yesterday, I was making fun of various expressions of 'I told you so'. However, "I told you so". I swear I did. And what is more, not only I told you so; we told you so... [More]
    Central Bank shall reconnect with the reality as soon as possible
    Güven Sak, PhD 08 January 2009
    The world has changed. This was what the International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief economist Olivier Blanchard and Director of Fiscal Affairs Department Carlo Cottarelli were mentioning in the joint statement they delivered recently, "What kind of an expansionary fiscal policy do we need?" If you wish, you can find the transcript of the statement in English in the IMF web site or in Turkish in the TEPAV web site. As the world is changing, everyone is trying to adjust, including the IMF. Only the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey is still living in yesterday's world. However, it is crucial for the Central Bank to reconnect with the reality. If you are wondering why, please go on reading. [More]
    Favorable indicators of yesterday do not give good news anymore
    Güven Sak, PhD 06 January 2009
    2009 will be year different from those we are used to. Before 2009, it was easier to understand which was a right step and which was a wrong step. The economy was operating within the framework we are familiar with. This year, however, things are different. The changes in indicators, which we would deem as favorable in the past, do not point a favorable state of affairs now. Therefore, confusion is inevitable. We are in a period where we have to look back on the things we know. The economy is shifting from one phase to another and in the meanwhile, main problem of the economy is changing. Set of concepts and indicators valid back then do not mean anything today.  Let us see towards what direction the binding constraints of yesterday move and what does this mean for the economy. [More]
    Bubbling bubbles
    Fatih Özatay, PhD 05 January 2009
    Since the bubble that emerged in the housing market of the US has burst, we are covered by 'tiny bubbles' all around. Everyone keeps saying "bubble is growing in Turkey", "keep out; the bubble will burst", "this is the result of 'false monetary policies'" and so on... [More]