Can things get worse?
23 April 2009
I know it is an unpleasant title to put at the National Sovereignty and Children's Day; however, current state of affairs validates this question. Here 'worse' refers to the possibility that the 2009 growth and unemployment realizations will be worse than the estimations I shared with you at this column.
Did markets start to revive?
23 April 2009
Did the markets start to revive? Do not you also notice dynamism at the markets? Recently we have been frequently hearing narratives that business activities are rallying. If you wonder what is going on, please keep reading.
Pre-accession Economic Program (PEP) is not the expected exit strategy
21 April 2009
This is how the mankind is; it starts to search for a 'green shoot' in the middle of the wreckage. Remember the life-at-out-blue-planet movies after post-atomic bomb cold war period. People left the shelters and walked around in demolished cities. There shined green shoots over steel skeletons of ruined giant buildings. And the life began again. All disaster movies ended with the birth of a glimmer of hope. This is the main feature of the mankind: We are specie that can be hopeful about the future. Hope gives us breath of life in the least expected time. This is good and necessary. The energy necessary to deal with the crisis is already hidden in our genes. Hope is necessary though is not sufficient. A manmade crisis can only be tackled with a manmade exit strategy. Seeds of hope that has
Unemployment rate forecasts
20 April 2009
Recently unfavorable data are being announced one after another. At the top of these unfavorable developments was the unemployment figures announced Wednesday. New data are based on new population estimations. Unemployment data only for January 2008 and 2009 were announced and the situation is really desperate: Unemployment rate increased by 3.9 points than the last year. For now, the new record is 15.5 percent. If you regard non-agricultural employment, the rate rises to 19 percent.
An important future problem of Turkey
19 April 2009
Along with the intensification of the global crisis, i.e. around the beginning of fourth quarter of 2008, to negative developments frightened Turkey: Fall in exports and tightening of external funding facilities. The impact they are to make was obvious: lower production, higher unemployment rate.
Risk of negative growth as well in 2010
16 April 2009
A step in the right direction is taken after a significant delay. Forecasts about macroeconomic indicators were revised and a more realistic picture was presented. What would have happened if the forecasts were not changed as done before the elections? Announced figures are already unfavorable. However, in case of such insistence, as the question "Do they know what they are doing" will gain prevalence and the confidence in the administration will be further eroded, more unfavorable figures would have been realized.
State Minister Mr. Mehmet Şimşek is not completely wrong
16 April 2009
When will the Turkish economy step on the recovery path? When will liquidity start to circulate in the market? Can recovery start alone? This is the issue we must focus on as the Turkish government officially acknowledged the crisis and announced that measures will be implemented. The statement made by State Minister Mr. Mehmet Şimşek that "households and the banking sector are doing well and the condition of the corporate sector is not bad at all" must be paid regard to and assessed. We used to emphasize that because of the crisis, the corporate sector was in bad shape. (Remember the story titled "I am currently feeling what the figures will tell you two months from now.) Last week, we said "if the corporate sector of a country is not doing well, banking sector of that country cannot be d
It is good that the economic administration has left behind the denial period
14 April 2009
Turkey, with almost a six-month delay, has for the first time faced the global economic crisis. Sorry, Turkey has for the first time "officially" faced the global economic crisis. We, as the people living in this country, have already faced the global crisis. We already knew that negative developments were taking place. It is not bad but good that the official "denial period" is now coming to an end. Credibility does not make you lose, it makes you win. It was anyway senseless to pretend that there is no problem here in Turkey while the global economic crisis was shaking everywhere throughout the world. The statements made by Vice Prime Minister Nazım Ekren yesterday ended the "denial period". This indicates that the first step toward the construction of public policy credibility has been
Is the recovery starting?
13 April 2009
To begin with, I would like to refer to the dual distinction I made months ago: the real sector and potential developments in global financial markets. With 'real sector' I mainly refer to the growth rates of big world economies which receive as a significant portion of Turkish exports. Different than other crises Turkey created alone, we are in an environment where we cannot make exports. This is one of the major reasons behind the fall in production. Therefore, it is important whether or not the economies of countries we export to will start recovering.
Precondition of increasing production is to increase domestic demand
12 April 2009
The most interesting data announced last week was the data on automotive sector. Because the data announced was for the month where a significant tax cut was introduced. As you might remember, I was skeptic about the arguments about what this tax cut will enable (see the column on March 19). Because, 80 percent of the sector's production was exported and as they had nothing to do with exports, tax cut was related only with the 20 percent of production. On the other hand, more than fifty percent of the vehicles sold in domestic market were imported. The rate for automobiles was almost 70 percent. Under these circumstances, tax cut was expected principally to be in favor of imports while its impact on production will be highly limited.