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Did the contraction period end? How will we measure?
In the coming days critical data will be announced: first October industrial production index, than third national income for the third quarter and November capacity…
Another slap in the face of the global credit market?
For a while we are mainly hearing bad news. This implies that the growth estimations for 2010 involve downward error risk as the main scenario on which estimates that…
Protecting the poor: How?
Global financial crisis has underlined once more an important fact: Credit flows from financial to real sector moves to a large extent along with the volume of economic…
Have you ever looked at Turkey with scrutiny?
Things might escape from attention within the daily struggles, but they should not. Things might be shaded by the severity of the power struggle; but they should not.…
Need for automatic stabilizers
On 29 September, TEPAV, the World Bank and UNICEF held a press meeting to introduce the report based on a survey carried out jointly. The findings of the Turkey Welfare…
What will happen in 2010? (2)
Yesterday I presented the basis scenario that I think will apply in 2010. In brief the scenario said: Over the last quarter of 2009 and the first half of 2010, the…
What will happen in 2010? (1)
Now it is time to answer "What will happen in 2010?" question. Before estimating the pace of growth in 2010, it is necessary to form some scenarios. Determining the pace…
Why did Saudi Arabia finance the World Food Summit in Rome?
At the beginning of this week, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) launched the World Food Summit in Rome. As the media suggests, the meeting was not much…
How will Turkey’s exports be shaped?
My last commentary ended with the question 'What will happen in 2010?' To answer this question, it is necessary to provide growth estimations under alternative…
No fire lasts forever
At the point we arrived, it will be useful to assess the situation of the climate of economic recession. The major point of discussion nowadays is: Did the signals of…
We are still transferring funds abroad
Will Turkey achieve the widely expected positive growth in the fourth quarter of 2009? What will be the growth rate in the coming quarters? To answer this question, I…
Credit market gives mixed signals
Generally accepted opinion was that we would see positive growth rates as of the last quarter of 2009 both for industrial production and national income. The main idea…