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The great game of pool
If you cannot plan your position ahead of time, you open yourself up to the random forces of the table. That appears to be the case for Turkey now. I must have heard it…
Steps to avoid in 2012
Which policy does the rate which the CBT calls the “policy rate” refer to? What is the goal of that alleged policy? There exists a huge uncertainty concerning monetary…
A year to hoard cash rather than spending
2012 will be a year to hoard cash rather than to spend or invest. It will be about staying solvent. Since the beginning of the 2008 crisis, Europe’s troubles have been…
Will the new constitution solve problems?
That consensus is difficult does not necessarily mean that it is impossible. Now, the job is more troublesome since the divisions are more deeply rooted. Today is the…
Oil, the Kurds and the future of Iraq
The U.S. has withdrawn its troops from Iraq. While the last units were leaving Iraq, an important agreement was being signed in the Kurdish region. The Kurdish…
This is way too much
Why did the CBT choose to cut the rate at fist and double almost double the rate and initiate FX selling auctions two months later? On Tuesday I reiterated my opinion…
Lessons from 2011
Central banks can implement an inflation targeting regime that also safeguards financial stability using old policy tools and the old policy framework. 2011 was a very…
Are you ready for an exhausting year?
It seems 2012 will be a year dominated by political debates and lingering economic reforms; one we will look forward to having finished. Am I getting old? I expect 2012…
Why Turkey is lagging
Turkey is a country of policy failures, making the country a useful case study for our neighbors these days. Turkey is lagging behind? Sounds perplexing, doesn’t it?…
There is room for fiscal expansion if necessary
Countries that have a low public debt ratio have a larger room to react against economic contraction. The Medium Term Program, the OECD and the IMF’s estimated the…
Turkey’s justice deficit
The courts do not function effectively. This is why Turkey fails to achieve innovation-driven growth. It created a great uproar during the 2001 crisis: The possibility…