Which factors must be considered when thinking on the year 2010?
Güven Sak, PhD
02 June 2009
Don't you also think that the shallowness in the current economic policy discussion is highly annoying? As you see, we are not discussing what type of measures must be implemented. We are in June 2009, and it must be annoying for everyone with a good head on their shoulders to see that the economic policy discussion in Turkey is stuck within the "Let us agree with the IMF" and "No way! First, they have to accept our terms" debate. There is no sense in Honorable Prime Minister's saying again and again "We have to wait and see about the IMF issue. They first have to accept our terms". The only feeling this statement evokes is the urge to ask the question "Which terms are you talking about?" And as you might see, that question does not have an answer either. Do you believe that negotiations a
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Short term –long term dilemma
Fatih Özatay, PhD
01 June 2009
Among the important economic factors that will put its mark on the medium term the first is that there is a high risk abundant global capital seen before the crisis period evaporates. For two reasons: First, the global economy was run over by a cylinder, it will need long time to recover. Second, from this point on, supervision and monitoring will be a carried out not only for certain part of the fiscal system but for the whole system and will be more detailed.
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The tax issue
Fatih Özatay, PhD
31 May 2009
Let's say that you are aiming to boost domestic demand. What are the tools you have? Tax rate cuts, transfer of a portion of the budget to some sectors (increasing transfer payments) and raising public expenditures. It is obvious that tax cut increases domestic demand. Therefore, this is not subject to discussion. No one says you cannot increase spending via tax rate cuts.
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Beloved economists
Güven Sak, PhD
30 May 2009
A while ago we maintained "No one likes economists" but we skipped the topic after two commentaries without concluding it. Today let us fulfill this duty. Let us begin with Andres Velasco; a successful economists highly popular in his hometown. But do not worry, if it were last year; he would have pushed for the top in the list of most hated economists. Then, what does this tell? This at most tells that he talks a lot on issues people do not know much about. This is the case not only in Chile, but also in Turkey.
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A sensitive story
Fatih Özatay, PhD
28 May 2009
We were living in Erzincan province. I and my elder sister were going to elementary school. After the school, my mother used to take us to day session of a movie from time to time. I remember watching Turkish films in general. And without a doubt, three of us used to cry during the movie.
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“There is crisis; there also is remedy”
Güven Sak, PhD
26 May 2009
Producing Turkey Platform launched a communication campaign with the title "There is crisis, there also is remedy". Producing Turkey Platform is led by Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges (TOBB). Besides TOBB, many trade unions including Hak-İş, Türk-İş, TESK, TİSK, Kamu-Sen as well as Turkish Industrialists' and Businessmen's Association (TUSIAD), Independent Industrialists' and Businessmen's Association (MUSIAD) and Assembly of Turkish Exporters (TİM) are involved in the platform. TOBB President Rifat Hisarcıklıoğlu specifically emphasized that anyone willing to join the platform can do so. Saying "There is crisis; there is remedy", platform made a statement putting special emphasis on the importance of the domestic market. Targeting consumers, it said "Don't lock yourselves in the
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Is recovery without credit possible?
Fatih Özatay, PhD
25 May 2009
Latest changes on the volume of loans extended by the banking sector were as follows: First, volume of total credits neither had a downward nor an upward trend over the last weeks. In other words, downward tendency observe since October came to an end. Second, volume of consumer loans was increasing since March 20. Third, this phenomenon observed both in total credits and consumer loans did not apply for all bank groups. While the volume of credits extended by private banks fell down, that extended by public banks went up.
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Instead of getting angry at banks…
Fatih Özatay, PhD
24 May 2009
No matter what type of accusations the officials bring against banks, I believe the essence of the issue is obvious for us: Loan market is different; it does not function like the pottery market. Person demanding a loan gets it today and in exchange promises to pay it back in a certain date in the future. What if the promise is not kept? Therefore banks, even under normal conditions, go over the application with a very fine comb before extending a loan.
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How might 2010 be?
Güven Sak, PhD
23 May 2009
Since May is about to end, it is wise to stop thinking about 2009 and start to focus on 2010. Have you started to think about how 2010 might be? Today let us start doing it together. When you start thinking, you begin to evaluate better what goes around.
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What is that banks have been putting us though?
Fatih Özatay, PhD
21 May 2009
Do you remember the 1994 crisis that Turkey skillfully created though no other part of the world economy was in crisis? The obsession before the emergence of the crisis was about the high rate of Treasury borrowing rate. And the accused was banks that 'sold money' to the Treasury. Indeed, over the last quarter of 1993 borrowing rates floated within the 80-92 percent interval and were high above the inflation rate of 66 percent.
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