Cold comfort
Fatih Özatay, PhD
07 September 2013
Let’s assume that until today not even a dime has left and will leave Turkey. Is this enough for a relief? “Fund outflow from Turkey was rather limited.” they say. They give figures and evaluate those on news shows. They breathe a sigh of relief claiming that what we feared did not happen. Then they get a bit confused about increases in exchange rate and interest rate.
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It’s time to construct Palestine brick by brick
Güven Sak, PhD
07 September 2013
I was in Rawabi last week, located in the ancient Palestinian hills between Ramallah and Nablus. Five years ago, there was nothing but rocks there. Now, the scene is changing for the first time since Jesus walked in those parts. Rawabi is the first large-scale Palestinian land development project in Palestine. Palestinians had large construction companies operating in other countries, but this is the first time the cranes have come to their own country. That should be good for peace. Rawabi is the first Palestinian settlement project in the West Bank. It looks very much like Modiin, on their cousins’ side. The project involves around 16,000 housing units, schools, theatres, and shopping centers, together with a mosque and a church. It is expected to cost around one billion dolla
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It’s not about green areas, but children
Güven Sak, PhD
06 September 2013
I ask for child-friendly cities. I want walkable cities, not cities where you can only drive around.
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Two critical mistakes played a key role
Fatih Özatay, PhD
05 September 2013
Since the late 2010 up to today, the interest rate policy of the CB relied mainly on the exchange rate movements. No, we are not ruined or anything. True, interest and exchange rates will be higher and 4 percent growth for the next couple of years will burst us with happiness. But don’t worry, to save us from the trouble of bursting, growth rate will most probably settle at a considerably lower level. Meanwhile, unemployment rate will get stuck at 10 percent. The level of investments will decrease, year-end inflation rate will float around 8 percent. It will probably be slightly higher in 2014. Yes, this scenario is a bit pessimistic, but it will not be disastrous. Of course, these hold under the assumption that Turkey will not get involved in Syria further.
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Warlords in Syria and Turkey
Nihat Ali Özcan, PhD
05 September 2013
Today I will leave aside the “strategically deep” topics and focus on a smaller problem. The Turkish General Staff has recently shared on its website a number of news items, such as the following: “In the area under the responsibility of the Hatay/Narlıca Oğulpınar Border Station on the Turkish-Syrian border, at around 9:30 p.m. on Friday, Aug. 23, 2013, a large group of smugglers, 200-250 of them on horseback and 2,500-3,000 on foot, with 150-200 vehicles, gathered on the Syrian side of the border and tried to enter our territory.” The size of the numbers and the continuing nature of the phenomenon point to a problem in need of urgent solution or management. If the situation persists, border security will no longer be a mere “law enforcement” issue, but will turn into a “nation
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The changing view at Rawabi was promising
Güven Sak, PhD
03 September 2013
I was pleased by what I saw in Rawabi. The Palestinians are driving a nail in their very old Palestine and building a new city. A new Palestinian city is rising between Ramallah and Nablus. Rawabi is the name of this new project. I was there last week. I spent three hours there and returned to Turkey. What I saw did not disturb me as much as the towers of Turkey’s Housing Development Administration (TOKİ). Rawabi is in a sense a mass housing construction project, but it did not bother me at all. In fact, what I saw raised my hopes for the future of Palestine. Let me share with you what I thought while I toured Rawabi with Bashar, the owner and the mastermind of the project.
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BISIT...
Fatih Özatay, PhD
03 September 2013
In each and every report and article released recently, you see these five countries on the top of the list for countries which will be affected most severely by the decisions of the FED. BISIT is the acronym for Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, India and Turkey. In each and every report and article released recently, you see these on the top of the list for countries which will be affected most severely by the decisions of the Federal Reserve (FED). This is because none of these countries have lived within their means. They have invested more than they have saved. In short, they have current account deficits. Current account deficit in proportion to GDP (%) was 2.3 in Brazil, 2.8 in Indonesia, 6.3 in South Africa, 3.4 in India and 6.1 in Turkey in 2012. Now take Turkey. Its average grow
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Why not temporary?
Fatih Özatay, PhD
31 August 2013
I believe underlying the decisions the Central Bank has or has not taken it is this feeling that the current international tensions will prove temporary. Are they really? I previously expressed that the prediction that dollar will hit down to 1.92 TL by the end of the year is based on the feeling that the current international tensions will prove temporary. I believe it is this feeling that underlying the decisions the Central Bank has or has not taken. Are they really temporary?
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Time to readjust the focus of the G-20 once more
Güven Sak, PhD
31 August 2013
There is now less than a week left until the G-20 Summit in St. Petersburg. This is the eighth time that 20 heads of state have come together. I was in Moscow the other day, attending a pre-summit conference organized by the Higher School of Economics and the University of Toronto’s Munsk Center for G-20 Research. Everyone seems to agree that the agenda next week cannot but touch upon the developments in Syria. The summit is happening at a time when the Syrian crisis is further escalating, and its host has rather strong and contrarian views about Syria. Does that mean that the G-20 summit is doomed for political reasons? I beg to differ. There is an opportunity here.The G-20 is a forum for the leaders of the biggest economies around the globe to come together and discuss global
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Why do oil prices not rise while the Middle East is in flames?
Güven Sak, PhD
30 August 2013
The Middle East is not as important for the US as it used to be. It is for China, and unfortunately for Turkey, which has not done its homework. The other day I recalled an interview broadcast on the BBC. I was reading a recent op-ed by Tom Friedman in the New York Times. He was wondering why oil prices did not hike while the Middle East was in flames. If it were in the past, oil prices would have doubled, moving from the current $100 to around $200. But today, nobody seems to be at unease. While I was reading Friedman’s op-ed column, I recalled Zeki Yamani’s words in that BBC commentary I watched a couple of years ago: “The Stone Age came to an end not for a lack of stones and the oil age will end, but not for a lack of oil.” I think we have come to the end of an age, the Churchill age. T
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