When is the land rent illicit?
Güven Sak, PhD
17 December 2013
In Turgut Özal’s time, land profits were distributed to millions and it was licit and inclusive. Not anymore. The Taksim Square has professedly become a pedestrian zone. It sounds like a good thing for pedestrians. “We have spared this zone exclusively for you. It is a car-free zone where you can enjoy the city and your lives.” This is how it sounds; but in practice it means quite the opposite. Do you wonder why?
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A ‘small harvest’ in Bali offers big horizons for WTO’s future
Sait Akman
16 December 2013
Trade ministers from 159 countries adopted a historic decision at the WTO’s (World Trade Organization) ninth Ministerial Conference held on the island of Bali in Indonesia. It is the first in time its history that the two-decade-old World Trade Organization has been able to deliver a set of rules that will be part of multilateral trade agreements. Shortly before the start of the Ministerial, Mr. Azavedo, the Director-General of the WTO himself declared cautiously that the risk of failure was still present. Dec. 7 saw a breakthrough in trade negotiations by way of a minor amelioration that discussions had brought to the table.
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Prospects for the Turkish economy in 2014 (3)
Fatih Özatay, PhD
14 December 2013
Non-gold exports increased by 6.3 percent year-on-year in the first 10 months, about two times of that in 2012. Here is the summary of my baseline scenario concerning the external factors that will affect Turkey’s economic performance in 2014: The Federal Reserve (FED) will taper and halt the third quantitative easing by the late 2013 or early 2014. The Republican Party and the Democrat Party will have a conflict on any occasion concerning fiscal policy but each time will reach deal in no time (by the way, we saw the first one of the deals last Thursday). The European Central Bank (ECB) will not carry out quantitative easing via bond purchases. It might cut the policy rate down to zero. The European Union and the Middle East and North Africa will grow at higher rates compared to 2013. The
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Mind the gap
Güven Sak, PhD
14 December 2013
We have a fixation in Turkey. Every now and then, we like to emphasize that Turkey belongs to Europe. If ever a foreign government, official or publication lists Turkey among countries other than Europe, Turks will get upset. Have you seen the latest issue of the Global Gender Gap Report of the World Economic Forum though? Let me tell you what I see: When it comes to gender gaps, Turkey definitely belongs to the Middle East; among the 136 countries surveyed in the report, Turkey ranked 120th. That is a reality check for me. Just have a look at the report and see what I mean. There is no question that Turkey needs to mind the gender gap. We also need to mind the gap in Quranic education for children, I have to say. Let me explain. The World Economic Forum (WEF) started publishing
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Why did civil politics fail in making a constitution?
Güven Sak, PhD
13 December 2013
To begin with, when addressing this failure, we should not focus on the concrete steps taken during the process. It appears that the constitution-making process initiated in 2011 has become mired down for now. Levent Gönenç of TEPAV has done a study of 148 among 806 attempts at constitution making since the French Revolution of 1789 and identified that the average time that it takes to make a new constitution was 16 months. In Turkey’s case, civil politics has failed in making a new constitution in its first attempt of about 25 months. I hope it does not end up like the Myanmar Constitution, which was made by the military in about 17 years. The Citizens’ Assembly Meetings we carried out in early 2012 revealed that 75 percent of the people were unhappy with the constitution of the coup d’ét
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Prospects for the Turkish economy in 2014 (2)
Fatih Özatay, PhD
12 December 2013
3.5 percent GDP growth would be a reasonable forecast. A sharper drop in net capital inflows or a significant rise in interest rate would limit GDP growth further and vice versa. Now it is time for my GDP growth forecast for 2014. Should the baseline scenario I presented before holds, I expect lower GDP growth in 2014 than in 2013. The third quarter GDP growth figure announced last Tuesday suggests that 2013 growth will be near 4 percent. For now assume that it will be a sharp 4 percent. Based on this I estimate that 2014 GDP growth will be around 3.5 percent. Below is the basis for this forecast.
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What is the use of the third bridge for innovativeness?
Güven Sak, PhD
10 December 2013
You cannot just build a bridge in the name of service procurement. I am sure somebody is calculating the yield of the project carried out with the people’s money. The third Bosporus bridge is being built with no consideration about its use. I think I saw the construction site from the sky when I was landing in Istanbul. Trees had been cut. The decision had been made, I am guessing according to some assessment, but we don’t know what. And I am extremely curious about that. For instance, what is the use of the third bridge for the innovation process? How will it make Istanbul a more livable and pedestrian-friendly city? How will it contribute to Turkey’s growth prospects? I am not arguing that all projects should have an economic return or make positive contributions to growth. I say that
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GDP growth in 2013
Fatih Özatay, PhD
10 December 2013
The official growth forecast for 2013 at 3.6 percent probably will be realized readily. In fact, GDP growth might be even higher below 4 percent. As I have shared with you my inflation forecast for 2014, it is time for GDP growth. Our key concern is whether GDP growth in 2014 will be higher compared to 2013. However, for now, we only know the GDP growth figure for the first half of the year (3.7 percent) and Q3 figure will have been released when this article is published. Hence, the 2013 GDP growth figure also should be forecasted.
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Children of another tongue
Güven Sak, PhD
07 December 2013
The OECD’s new PISA exam scores were announced this week. The PISA test is a useful index to compare the educational attainment of children from different countries. This year, two things marked the announcement of the 2012 exam scores in over 60 countries for me. One was the discussion of the meaning of PISA comparisons between countries. China’s results are a part of the furor. The claim is that the Chinese conducted tests only on students around Shanghai, where the school system is better than in other parts of the country. That would mean that the data is skewed. Regardless of whether or not this is true, there is no question that sampling is important. Note that PISA tests are conducted in official languages. Some things will inevitably be lost in translation.Despite all th
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Turkey ranks sixth in the number of recipients of doctorates at American universities
Güven Sak, PhD
06 December 2013
Why doesn’t Turkey remunerate the efforts of the well-trained young people? I noticed this the other day when I was checking the 2013 Transition Report of the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). It appears that Turkey surpasses transition countries in the number of recipients of science and engineering doctorates at American universities. As of 2011, the number of recipients from Turkey was 90 per million people while the numbers were barely around 30 in transition countries such as Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic. The total number for transition countries is around 300 per million. Turkey does not do badly concerning skilled labor force. Why can’t it do miracles, then? Why is it stuck at the bottom on innovation indices? Where the hell are the science and engi
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