If the cities are not child-friendly, shopping malls will proliferate
Güven Sak, PhD
31 December 2013
Let me tell you how: be creative and focus on the right measures. Change urbanization policies. “In the heart of Ankara, in Kızılay, stores on busy streets are not worth a hill of beans. Shop keepers are out on a limb.” I heard this observation at a meeting about the retail sector in Ankara. The participant who shared this observation also lived in Ankara. He complained about the mushrooming of shopping malls in the city. The number has almost reached 40 now. As the Ankara mayor has declared proudly, Ankara not only ranks first in Turkey, but also beats the European average, with 215 square meters of shopping mall area per capita. More shopping malls squeeze out the small shop owners and shop keepers.
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Why do the Turks have a fascination with the State?
Güven Sak, PhD
28 December 2013
Looking for a difference in attitude between the Turks and the Europeans? Let me tell you one. Turks do not trust each other but have a deep-seated trust towards the institutions of the State. Europeans are just the reverse. They trust one other but have a distrust of all governmental institutions, when compared to the Turks. Deep distrust with respect to institutions of the government is definitely related to corruption. There is a study on that. The European Quality of Life Surveys say that Europeans have this perception, but Turks do not. Does that mean that corruption is less of an issue in Turkey? I do not think so. Just look at the recent corruption allegations in the country. We can discuss the political dimension regarding the timing of the graft probe, but the allegatio
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Why would a Harvard graduate open a kebab house?
Güven Sak, PhD
27 December 2013
hat is this about, the quality of the education at Harvard or the investment climate in Turkey? I vote for the second. I have been thinking about this for a long time. It’s been lingering in a corner of my mind. It surfaced again with a recent piece of news. And here I ask: Why would a Harvard graduate return home and open a kebab house? Do you know the story? Let me tell you.
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The country of the year was the modest Uruguay
Güven Sak, PhD
24 December 2013
I really liked Jose Mujica. He is not after cheap heroism as Chavez was. He is working quietly and humbly. Jose Mujica is 78 years old. A former Tupamaros guerilla, he fought and was shot by the police six times. He was incarcerated for 14 years in a military prison; he paid a price for his actions. He was elected president of Uruguay in 2010. Currently, he is showing the world a different kind of political leadership. He is a very humble and modest man. He does not cause noise pollution when he talks. He walks with two bodyguards! He lives with his wife in their small farmhouse outside of town instead of in the presidential palace. He does not use an official car, nor does he have a motorcade that escorts him, honking or blocking streets. Indeed, he drives his old Beetle. He is different
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Beard or arm?
Fatih Özatay, PhD
24 December 2013
Some of you might say that both of our arms were already cut off before this probe. I have to say it is an argument to consider. Remember the analogy Sokollu Mehmed Pasha, first the grand admiral and later the grand vizier, was reported to have mentioned to the Venetian Ambassador: “By conquering Cyprus we have cut off one of your arms; at Lepanto by defeating our navy you have only shaved off our beard. However, you know that a cut-off arm cannot be replaced but shaved-off beard grows thicker.” I got this quote when I searched some few keywords left in my mind from the “thorough” history classes I took in secondary school. I think this is more or less the original quote reported from the chronicles.
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Prospects for the Turkish economy in 2014 (4)
Fatih Özatay, PhD
21 December 2013
The pessimistic scenario might become the “baseline scenario.” And the recent shock that shook Turkey intensifies this possibility. I wrote the paragraphs below about 10 days ago and postponed releasing them. Can you believe how quickly the conditions and agenda change in Turkey! So, below you can see the worse-case and best-case scenarios. This is the original version I wrote 10 days ago. I did not change a word: “What could be the optimistic scenario for 2014? There are three key factors that would enable a more positive outlook for the Turkish economy: first, the Federal Reserve (FED) postpones the tightening to a later date and tapers only a small volume of bond purchases. Second, even the FED initiates tightening, it makes a limited impact on financial markets. Third, the European C
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Double jeopardy in Turkey
Güven Sak, PhD
21 December 2013
I feel bad for Dr. Erdem Başçı, the governor of the Central Bank of Turkey. Just at the end of August, he surprised me by saying that the “Turkish Lira could reach 1.92 against at the end of December 2013”, hinting a surprise move. Those months passed rather swiftly, and here we are at the last third of December. The end of the year is approaching and the Lira is now around 9% lower than the nominal Başçı limit. It is around 2.09 at the time of writing. Never set a nominal limit for the exchange rate. It is bad for the already tarnished credibility of the Central Bank. Some stability would not have gone remiss in these very interesting times. There is no question that the Turkish Lira is under severe stress. It is breaking its own records of depreciation. One day after the start
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If the Fed tapers, we have to tighten our belts
Güven Sak, PhD
20 December 2013
Add to this picture the political uncertainty the massive bribery and corruption probe will cause. Recently, I attended a G20 meeting in Sydney. The meeting was on the G20’s 2014 agenda. One of the chief objectives of the G20 is to ensure more inclusive decision-making processes. The participants asked about inclusiveness and the steps to take.
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The massive bribery probe and the Turkish economy
Fatih Özatay, PhD
19 December 2013
If the current economic structure of Turkey were similar to that before the 2001 crisis, the economy would have shaken so badly. The probe initiated recently in Turkey has shaken the entire country. All we wish is that the operation will be carried on lawfully and the people responsible will be detected. This natural wish as a citizen aside, the questions that matters for the purpose of this commentary is how this shocking probe would affect the prospects for the Turkish economy.
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It’s not only inflation that is stiff
Fatih Özatay, PhD
17 December 2013
The outlook of unemployment in Turkey is same as that of inflation. The mean is stiff, and we cannot overcome it permanently. Labor force statistics for September were released yesterday. Employment rate (share of the employed in the working age population), started to rise after the crisis but this trend ended in April. Currently employment rate stands slightly below 46 percent. Unemployment rate, on the other hand, demonstrates an upwards trend in line with expectations. Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate achieved its lowest in mid-2012 with 8.9 percent and it has been increasing since then. The upwards trend was at first undulating but has been in a stable increase since February. Unemployment rate finally reached 10.2 percent in September. Unfortunately, this was the customary level
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