Growing discontent against Syrians in Turkey
Güven Sak, PhD
13 September 2014
I was reading the key findings of the Transatlantic Trends (TTs) 2014 survey the other day. One of them is Turks’ growing discontent with immigrants. People do not seem to be happy with the way their government is handling the Syrian crisis. 75% of respondents to the 2014 survey see emigration as a problem, which is up 29 points from 2013. That increase should ring alarm bells. That is also why the American plan to eradicate ISIL in Iraq and Syria is in Ankara’s interest. Let me explain.
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Of fake housing bubbles and Syrian refugees
Güven Sak, PhD
06 September 2014
I have often been asked about the housing prices in Turkey lately. My questioners often want to confirm their sense that the housing bubble is going to burst, that a year or two down the line and they’ll be able to say “I told you so.” Have a look at the table below. It shows the increase in housing prices across Turkey between January 2010 and May 2014. The data is released by Central Bank of The Republic of Turkey (CBRT). So unless there is something terribly wrong with my eyes, there is no housing bubble in the data. I do, however, see Syrian refugees having a considerable impact. Let me elaborate.
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Towards the Internet Governance Forum 2014: Turkish Economy’s Networked Readiness
02 September 2014
World Economic Forum’s (WEF) Networked Readiness Index 2014 was recently released. Since 2012, this study ranks countries in terms of their ability to use ICT for their economies’ competitiveness and citizens’ wellbeing. The top places are, as expected, full of Asian Tigers and Nordic economies. Turkey ranks as 51st, moving down from 46th place in 2013. Its rankings in the sub-pillars have mostly remained stable during the past three years, meaning some very problematic areas have not undergone much of an improvement. (Table 1)
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Time for a new reform agenda for Turkey
Güven Sak, PhD
30 August 2014
Turkey is currently in a political transition process – a very orderly one so far. Let me tell you what we know as of this Friday. We have a new President, a new prime minister and a new council of ministers. The successful Babacan-Şimşek team has kept its portfolio as deputy prime minister responsible for the economy and minister of finance, respectively. So there is no news when it comes to economic policy. No news is good news under these circumstances. So far so good.
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Internal Migration Dynamics in Turkey
Güven Sak, PhD
23 August 2014
I think I first heard it from Bernard Lewis – Turks’ endless fascination in moving westwards. He writes of the move from Central Asia into Anatolia and the Balkans, and then ties it to modern Turkey’s bid for the European Union. Regardless of Lewis’ politics, he was on to something. Have a look at the population movements within the country in the last 50-something years. Turkey is a country on the move. Turks, Kurds and others in the Eastern provinces are still picking up and moving West. Even a cursory glance at the numbers will tell you that Western cities grow disproportionately.
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Without Turkcell, Erzurum would cease to exist
Güven Sak, PhD
22 August 2014
My niece Ela is seven. Yesterday we were chatting. She said, “my pattern is obvious. First I am skinny, than I put on weight. This is followed by a period of me getting skinny again.” Like this, the pattern of Erzurum city in eastern Turkey is also evident. The population shrinks at a higher rate than other cities. In 1927, 20 out of every 1000 people in Turkey lived in Erzurum, compared to 16 in Gaziantep. By the end of 1980, the numbers grew even, with shares of 18 in 1000 each. By 2012, Gaziantep outgrew Erzurum, with 25 to 10 people in every 1000. Erzurum shrank to almost the half of Gaziantep’s population, contrary to the pattern in the early years of the republic. Gaziantep came out ahead of Erzurum with the transformation of Turkey in the Turgut Özal era. Erzurum has lost relatively
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No victor but so many victims anyways
Güven Sak, PhD
16 August 2014
Reading the Obama interview of Thomas Friedman in the New York Times, I have come to the conclusion that we still do not know how to go from diagnosis to policy action. That makes us woefully unprepared for what is happening in the Middle East.
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Part-time terrorists and the dwindling Turkish-Iraqi trade
Güven Sak, PhD
09 August 2014
I was lately struck by a rather recent story from Gaziantep, Turkey. It is so ordinary and so horrible at the same time. It is about part-time terrorists and the dwindling Turkish-Iraqi trade. Let me first tell you the story. I find it unreal every time I talk about it.
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The condition of women in Turkey is no laughing matter
Güven Sak, PhD
02 August 2014
Our deputy prime minister, Bülent Arınç, recently let slip his opinion that “women should not laugh in front of everybody” Why does he think so? Beats me. I think it’s a weird thing to say. It indicates an anachronism embedded in Turkey’s ruling elite. What’s more though, is that there is a strange connection between laughter and authoritarianism.
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An unfortunate statement
Fatih Özatay, PhD
31 July 2014
I think the following should be the most unfortunate statement ever coming from a central bank official: “Inflation has been obstinately high lately. We have introduced new measures. If these don’t work either, we will start considering structural problems. Hence, if we cannot attain a sufficient decline in inflation, we might have to declare a higher target for the next year end.”
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