Why the Arab Spring went wrong
Güven Sak, PhD
21 June 2014
When Egyptians was flooding to Tahrir Square, I was fascinated with the Arab Spring. Like many others, I too wrote in praise of the movement at the time. Then an experienced Turkish diplomat warned me. “Do not reach for quick conclusions” he told me, “things always start good in the Middle East, with high hopes and good intentions, but let me tell you about the people here: They mess up sooner or later. They cannot break from their past.” He was right. They just messed up big time. In the second act, it all became messier in Egypt, Libya, Syria and now in Iraq. The Arab Spring has gone wrong. Here is my first take for today: There is no structural break with the past. That past is still there and haunting them. So nothing unusual yet on the southern front, I have to say. The age-old dysfu
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Do come to see Ankara, city of ultimate fakes
Güven Sak, PhD
14 June 2014
Can a city be defined by fakery? Here I am not talking about politics, which can easily be added to the list when talking about ultimate fakes. I am talking about the reality or hyperreality. Driving in and around Ankara is to live inside a hyperreality alla Turca.
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In Cyprus negotiations, this time it’s different
Güven Sak, PhD
07 June 2014
Leaders of both Turkish and Greek communities in Cyprus recently signed a joint declaration committing themselves to a confederation of two federal states. Thus the Cyprus negotiations restarted. That is better than the alternative. But there is reason to look beyond the usual pessimism of Cyprus watchers. I think this round is truly set to be different. Let me explain why.
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Gezi spirit and the twitter wars prevail
Güven Sak, PhD
31 May 2014
I have to thank Türk Telekom for reminding me yesterday morning that Turks, well at least 50 % of them, are celebrating the first anniversary of the Gezi Park incident that I might have forgotten otherwise. Allah korusun! Let me tell you how I was reminded.
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Turkey’s Misery Index and the shy rate cut
Güven Sak, PhD
24 May 2014
Remember the old Misery Index of Arthur Okun and Robert Barro from the past? It is simply the sum of the unemployment and inflation rates. When it was first invented in the 1970s, the problem of the developed economies was stagflation; that is high inflation together with low growth and high unemployment. Later, it was used in the US to compare the performances of different presidents. High unemployment signifies a lack of jobs and high inflation is about the rise in the cost of living. That is misery to you. Have you ever looked at the misery index for Turkey? My colleagues at TEPAV have just prepared a series for me to look at. Let me make three points regarding the trends in the Turkish Misery Index.
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Why are more Turks dying for a ton of coal?
Güven Sak, PhD
17 May 2014
Turkey is mourning for its losses in Soma. A record number of miners have lost their lives. The death toll is creeping to 300, making it comparable only to the 19th or early 20th century mining disasters. The human cost of coal production is rather high in Turkey. In fact, Turkey is a world leader in the human cost of coal production. Let me explain. In 2012, the U.S. produced around 1 billion tons of coal annually against Turkey’s 76 million. However, there were 20 fatalities resulting from injuries in coal production in the States in 2012. Turkey’s death toll in coal production due to accidents was also 20 in 2012. If our coal production had been closer to that of the U.S., the human cost would have been around 250 in Turkey. That is what I have in mind when talking about the
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Growing pains in Turkey
Güven Sak, PhD
10 May 2014
Turkey is a country in flux. My personal history happens to cover all the major parts of my country’s transformation. I was born in the western part of Turkey in 1961. The first industrial zone of the country was also established in that same in year in Bursa, my hometown. Industrialization started with industrial zones and Bursa was one of the leading cities outside of Istanbul and İzmir. At the time, Ankara was a city of civil servants only. Only a year had passed since the city had seen its first coup d’etat. Turkey was just a sleepy agrarian country. In the years after my birth, private sector-based industrialization started to sprawl across Anatolia. The army really got into the swing of coup d’etats. So I consider myself as having seen it all. I may be wrong, but that is my feeling n
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Why Turks cannot make long term plans
Güven Sak, PhD
03 May 2014
“Turkish economy still vulnerable to reversal of capital flow” reads the headline. It was a piece published last week by an S&P analyst on the dynamics of the Turkish economy. It made a good point. There is no question about that vulnerability. It has been around for a while. Six decades, maybe more? Just have a look at this last one: Turks have raised their imbalances while everyone else was in fact correcting theirs. Reversals every, Turkey is an exception. Reckless? Definitely. Dangerous? Yes.But it has definitely worked so far. The level of imbalance nearly doubled in the Turkish economy right during the period of quantitative easing in the West. Historically, we have doubled up the level of our chronic current account deficit level from 5% to 10%. That led to a two-year
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Malaysia and Turkey: similar or not?
Güven Sak, PhD
26 April 2014
The prime minister of Malaysia, Najib Razzak, was recently in Turkey. The two countries signed a Free Trade Agreement (FTA). As I was listening to Razzak talking about the agreement, I started thinking about the similarities and dissimilarities between the two countries. Turkey and Malaysia appear similar, but they are not at all. Let me explain. First, Turkey and Malaysia are predominantly Muslim countries; around 60% of Malaysians and 99% of Turks are Muslims. However, ethnicity and religion coincides in the case of Malaysia, as Malays are Muslims. There is no such one-to-one correspondence between ethnicity and religion in Turkey. That is a big difference, if you ask me. Second, both countries are considered examples of moderation in Islam. Similar? No. Turkey has a Civil Co
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EU still means hope in Turkish
Güven Sak, PhD
19 April 2014
The results from two different surveys surfaced last week. Both show the attitude of Turks towards the European Union (EU). Lately, Turks’ frustration with the EU has turned into a kind of numbness, a kind of indifference. The last we heard in 2013, only one third of Turks supported their country’s bid for EU membership. Two recent surveys however, display that the EU fire is still alive within Turks. But which regions of Turkey are more pro-EU? First, the level of support in general increases if you move to the East of the country. Support levels are significantly below average in Central Anatolia, as the graph shows. Secondly, Turkey’s corporate sector is overwhelmingly in support of the accession process. The trend is similar here – the level of support rises as you move east. The lesse
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