The figures are clear enough
Fatih Özatay, PhD
04 March 2014
Inflation is on the rise. Annual CPI was at 7.8 percent in January and increased to 7.9 percent in February. Inflation figures for February validate the expectation that inflation is on the rise. Annual CPI was at 7.8 percent in January and increased to 7.9 percent in February. The critical increase was in headline inflation, which determines the CPI dynamics. The I indicator increased to 8.4 percent compared to 7.6 percent in January on year-on-year basis. Let me remind you that the average headline inflation remained significantly below the CPI average previously.
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Turkish Cypriots are like Palestinians
Güven Sak, PhD
01 March 2014
I was at a meeting on the Dead Sea, Jordan this week. The meeting was between the Palestinians, Israelis, Turks, Jordanians, Egyptians and the Americans looking for economic cooperation possibilities in our complicated region. There I heard one Israeli businessman asking a rather naive question to expat participants from the GCC countries. He was asking why peace matters so much in fostering GCC private sector investments in Palestine and why GCC companies do not start investing in Palestine today without complicating the analysis with the utterly political peace issue. Every sustainable investment requires a business horizon and predictability, an element that is lacking in Palestine. If a company’s objective is to focus on solid profitable investment opportunities then Palesti
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Why has the TAI failed to do what the KAI has done?
Güven Sak, PhD
28 February 2014
Turkey could have been selling its Freebirds already if it had the determination and patience in regards to R&D. Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) was established in 1984. Turkey was planning to buy F-16 aircrafts from the US for the Turkish Air Force. It is reported that Turgut Özal wanted a company that would assemble the parts of aircrafts to create a synergy in technology development. The TAI was hence established for the transfer of technology and started its operations in cooperation with Lockheed Martin.
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"We have blown up 28 missiles to understand why"
Güven Sak, PhD
25 February 2014
The administrators do not have the patience for promoting any given R&D project since they approach it the way they approach construction projects. The Custom’s Union agreement helped Turkey become a medium-tech industrial economy and an indispensible part of the European market. The Custom’s Union has fulfilled its function for Turkey. Please let me note that this was all thanks to the European Union accession process. There is one thing that has been occupying my mind lately:
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‘Where is that bridge-guy? Come quickly, quickly!’
Güven Sak, PhD
22 February 2014
Those words were uttered during the ceremony to lay the foundations of the third bridge over the Bosphorus. It was only May 29 of last year, but it feels like a very long time ago. Too many things have changed in Turkey since then. The Gezi protests started two days after the ceremony and things have been speeding up ever since. The Fed’s tapering was just a cruel reality test for all of us in mid-December. The graft probe was the final straw. The country’s elite is in permanent shock and Turkey’s political landscape has changed drastically since. But I still remember a scene from that now long-forgotten past of ours, one that encapsulates the meaning of doing business in Turkey for Turks and foreigners alike. It goes to show why Turkey has not been able to break free of the mid
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The timing of the FED is significant
Fatih Özatay, PhD
20 February 2014
If the FED was to take its decisions in 2010, the world would have started discussing how fragile the Turkish economy was immediately back then. Did anyone of us fear in the late 2009 or the early 2010 that net capital inflows (net foreign debt or more fashionably net foreign resources) could decline? Say that we were subjected to fierce propaganda; but were international markets complaining about the vulnerabilities in Turkey? On the contrary, they were in fact praising the Turkish economy. Say that we all have a short memory and have gone through a lot in the meanwhile; but we can always check statistics.
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Turkey somehow cannot get beyond the beginner level in English
Güven Sak, PhD
18 February 2014
Teachers cannot go beyond the textbook, encourage students to read newspapers, or write movie critiques. TEPAV and the British Council recently carried out a survey on English education in primary and secondary schools in Turkey. My favorite part of the results is that 21 percent of primary school students believe that they are beginner level in English. These students go on to secondary school and continue to take English courses, but 32 percent of them think they still speak beginner level English. Time goes on, more English courses are included in the curriculum, but some part of students still think they speak beginner-level English. The rates are even higher in vocational schools. The rate of students who believe they speak advanced English is 10 percent among primary school students
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Statistics speak louder than words
Fatih Özatay, PhD
18 February 2014
Turkey performs poorly also in terms of GDP growth; ranking eleventh in growth and first in volatility. It is clear that long-term trends augur bad for Turkey. The income gap with rich countries is quite high and it does not seem to narrow down. Government officials therefore keep away from such comparisons. Their discourse is more like “the economy has grown remarkably compared to Europe; unemployment rate is radically lower than that of Spain; public debt is lower than the European average; inflation is incomparably lower than what it was before 2003; Turkey will be the tenth largest economy by 2023, if God lets” etc.
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Turkey needs Jordanian help
Güven Sak, PhD
15 February 2014
The population of Jordan is less than 7 million, in comparison to Turkey’s more than 70 million. However, the 1 million Syrian refugees might have been less of a problem in Jordan than in Turkey. This is what I have been thinking about for a few days now. Jordan knows how to cope with a refugee problem, but Turkey does not. Compared to Turks, Jordanians know how to integrate refugees into their lives. Turks do not. Around March 2011, when the Syrian uprising was just an uprising and not a civil war, Turks saw Syrian refugees as their temporary guests. Our prime minister thought like that, too. The number of Syrian refugees had not yet reached six figures, mind you. We had so many red lines to not be crossed in those days. Now, after three years, Turks are still seeing Syrian ref
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What is the link between the inability to walk with a stroller and Internet bans?
Güven Sak, PhD
14 February 2014
No one has thought just for ten minutes with a holistic perspective what it is like for children to grow up in Ankara. What is the link between not being able to walk in Ankara with a stroller and the latest regulation that gives the state unlimited discretion about Internet control? This question came to mind when I was reading the awkward law package the other day. I saw a close link between them. I am concerned with form rather than content today. I believe that this method does not allow a healthy legislation process and the parliament to use its legislative powers. I recommend that you read the law. Why can’t you walk safely with a stroller in Ankara? Because you cannot know what kind of a surprise is waiting for you when you turn the corner, thanks to the “parcel-based planning” inve
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